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My favorite cube of Nordic Open
Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Saturday, 11 April 2015, at 10:49 a.m.
In Response To: My favorite cube of Nordic Open (tuvi)
I did it quickly, but I only count ~ 198 hits in 1296 for white. If that decided it and there were no gammons, white would be about 126 hits shy of a take. But, there is more to it. White may only win ~90% of his hits = 178. White cones in on the next shake ~110 times without hitting. ~20 of those are 55 and white probably wins 15 of those. Of the other 90 nonhitting incoming 5's, he probably wins about 1/3 or 30. He wins some games after dancing. He wins some gammons after hitting. If he wins 6% after fanning, that would give him ~60 wins. He probably wins a gammon about 20% of his wins, as black will have two or more blots in many positions. So white wins ~ 178+15+30+60=283 wins. If he wins a gammon 20%, his equity is 283+56=339. Black probably wins about 5% gammons, and he wins 1296283=1013. 1013*1.05 = ~ 1067. Therefore: 339/(339+1067) = ~.24 D/P

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