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Variants (free of QF)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 22 September 2015, at 11:08 p.m.

In Response To: No QF Here - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 106 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 159 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---ABaCBC-----a-abbbbbbD--:1:1:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	8/4	eq: -1.114
	Player: Opponent: 10.41% (G:0.41% B:0.01%) 89.59% (G:35.29% B:1.30%) Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-1.119...-1.109) - [100.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 38 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/5* 6/5	eq: -1.154 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 14.31% (G:1.14% B:0.05%) 85.69% (G:48.01% B:3.32%) Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-1.164...-1.145) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 11 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60674376 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of his original position.

Below is a key variant, where making the 5pt is best (by far).

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 106 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 160 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---ABaCBC-----a-abbbbbbCA-:1:1:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1

1.	Rollout1	8/5* 6/5	eq: -1.055
	Player: Opponent: 17.48% (G:1.63% B:0.07%) 82.52% (G:45.74% B:3.82%) Conf.: กำ 0.008 (-1.064...-1.047) - [100.0%] Duration: 35 minutes 03 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/23 6/3	eq: -1.107 (-0.052)
	Player: Opponent: 10.71% (G:0.46% B:0.01%) 89.29% (G:35.49% B:1.41%) Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-1.113...-1.102) - [0.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 44 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/23 4/1	eq: -1.120 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 10.20% (G:0.34% B:0.01%) 89.80% (G:35.58% B:1.38%) Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-1.126...-1.115) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 47 seconds
4.	Rollout1	8/7 6/3	eq: -1.137 (-0.081)
	Player: Opponent: 11.83% (G:0.60% B:0.03%) 88.17% (G:40.71% B:2.10%) Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-1.143...-1.131) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 21 seconds
5.	Rollout1	8/4	eq: -1.138 (-0.082)
	Player: Opponent: 11.90% (G:0.55% B:0.02%) 88.10% (G:41.04% B:2.01%) Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-1.144...-1.132) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 41 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

If we move the other 23pt spare to the 24pt, pointing on the 5pt still dominates, but this time the closest candidates are all hitting plays.

If anyone would like to do higher-ply rollouts for these positions, be my guest.:)

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 106 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---ABaCBC-----a-abbbbbbBB-:1:1:1:13:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2

1.	Rollout1	8/5* 6/5	eq: -0.882
	Player: Opponent: 23.05% (G:1.47% B:0.05%) 76.95% (G:39.50% B:6.29%) Conf.: กำ 0.011 (-0.893...-0.872) - [100.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 08 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/5* 3/2	eq: -0.919 (-0.036)
	Player: Opponent: 22.51% (G:0.89% B:0.04%) 77.49% (G:40.88% B:6.84%) Conf.: กำ 0.012 (-0.931...-0.907) - [0.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 18 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/7 8/5*	eq: -0.923 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 22.14% (G:0.84% B:0.03%) 77.86% (G:41.05% B:6.30%) Conf.: กำ 0.011 (-0.934...-0.912) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 46 seconds
4.	Rollout1	6/5* 4/1	eq: -0.924 (-0.042)
	Player: Opponent: 22.98% (G:0.58% B:0.02%) 77.02% (G:41.67% B:7.41%) Conf.: กำ 0.012 (-0.937...-0.912) - [0.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 10 seconds
5.	Rollout1	8/5* 4/3	eq: -0.948 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 21.28% (G:0.81% B:0.04%) 78.72% (G:40.99% B:6.36%) Conf.: กำ 0.010 (-0.957...-0.938) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 38 seconds
6.	Rollout1	7/4 6/5*	eq: -0.950 (-0.068)
	Player: Opponent: 21.26% (G:0.70% B:0.02%) 78.74% (G:41.22% B:6.55%) Conf.: กำ 0.011 (-0.961...-0.939) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 31 seconds
7.	Rollout1	8/5* 7/6	eq: -0.952 (-0.069)
	Player: Opponent: 21.29% (G:0.66% B:0.03%) 78.71% (G:41.28% B:6.54%) Conf.: กำ 0.012 (-0.964...-0.940) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 25 seconds
8.	Rollout1	6/5* 5/2	eq: -0.955 (-0.072)
	Player: Opponent: 20.66% (G:0.84% B:0.04%) 79.34% (G:40.18% B:6.46%) Conf.: กำ 0.010 (-0.965...-0.945) - [0.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 03 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• No QF Here
  Stick -- Monday, 21 September 2015, at 3:34 a.m.
  • No QF Here
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 21 September 2015, at 5:51 a.m.
  • No QF Here
    scotty -- Monday, 21 September 2015, at 7:08 a.m.
  • No QF Here
    ah_clem -- Monday, 21 September 2015, at 2:15 p.m.
  • No QF Here
    neilkaz -- Monday, 21 September 2015, at 6:10 p.m.
    • No QF Here
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 21 September 2015, at 8:43 p.m.
  • No QF Here
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 21 September 2015, at 6:27 p.m.
  • No QF Here - Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 22 September 2015, at 6:55 p.m.
    • Variants (free of QF)
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 22 September 2015, at 11:08 p.m.