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Post Crawford against inferior opponent (corrected)

Posted By: Trunky
Date: Saturday, 26 September 2015, at 5:36 p.m.

Woosley says you should always take a post Crawford double when your opponent is an odd number away. But what about when the doubling player is much less skilled than you and doesn't know they should double straight away, and they aren't just trying to get to induce a drop when it is a take?

For example, my opponent has a 10% lead in a race

 White is Player 2 score: 10 pip: 110 11 point match pip: 100 score: 6 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--A-BBBBBBB--a-bbbbbbb----:0:0:1:00:6:10:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

 Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 75.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 75.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 24.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 24.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities +0.503 +0.564 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.564 (0.000) Double/Take: +0.564 Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.436) Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

My thought is at 1a-5a, as the more skilful player, when my opponent doubles as if it were a cash game, I have another 4 chances to win a single game and the match if I drop but only 3 games in which to win when I take the late double. Therefore, I have a better chance of winning the match when I pass.

Assuming I am 60% favourite to win any game against this opponent, I get 4 times 60% chance to win when I pass, but when I take I am 25% to win this game + 60% in the next two games. Is this flawed logic?

Clearly, a correct early double should be taken regardless of the opponent's skill.

Here is a borderline decision at this score which shows that the leader needs only a 4% wining chance to take, but XG is not taking into account the skill of the opponent.

 White is Player 2 score: 10 pip: 110 11 point match pip: 80 score: 6 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABBBDBB----a-bbbbbbb----:0:0:1:00:6:10:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

 Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 95.99% (G:0.04% B:0.00%) 96.01% (G:0.05% B:0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 4.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 3.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities +0.920 +0.999 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.980 (-0.019) Double/Take: +0.999 Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.001) Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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