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Post Crawford against inferior opponent (corrected)

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Sunday, 27 September 2015, at 1:36 a.m.

In Response To: Post Crawford against inferior opponent (corrected) (Trunky)

"Assuming I am 60% favourite to win any game against this opponent, I get 4 times 60% chance to win when I pass, but when I take I am 25% to win this game + 60% in the next two games. Is this flawed logic?

Clearly, a correct early double should be taken regardless of the opponent's skill."

Why is that so clear? Suppose you are 50% to win the current game. Wouldn't it be better to drop and have 4 chances at 60% each than to take and get one chance at 50% and thee at 60%?

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