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Variant

Posted By: mamabear
Date: Tuesday, 13 October 2015, at 7:14 a.m.

In Response To: Variant (Nack Ballard)

Duplication isn't always the key to the highway, but with the differences in both cases being this small, it's worth considering its effect. It's a factor in both cases shown here (hitting 4s in the original, hitting 5s in the variant).

In the original position, the duplicated 4s can be removed by putting the opponent's midpoint checkers on the 14 point instead. This enables 24/18 6/4 to emerge as the new favorite play, but we can ignore that and instead look at the effect on 24/16* vs. the other reasonable plays. XGR++ shows that hit now losing out to both 8/2* 4/2 and 13/7 6/4.

In Nack's variant, the duplication of the hitting 5s similarly appears to swing the call. If I move the opponent's back man from the 2 to either the 1 or the 3, 24/16* clearly wins over 13/7 6/4*.

Strategic concerns do favor 24/16* in both cases, but only by enough that it's best when the tactical factor of duplication is on its side. It's not favored by enough to overcome a tactical disadvantage in the variant case, when a good, constructive alternative has the favorable duplication instead.

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