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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 19 October 2015, at 11:18 p.m.

In Response To: I heard someone say you're supposed to just make the DMP play (Timothy Chow)

This position actually came up for me at 4a3a, where the computer says I was supposed to go for the gammons. Instead I played 8/4 5/2. I didn't consider 6/3 6/2, which seems to be the DMP play, but which also rolls out worse than 8/4 5/2 at 4a3a.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 100
Unlimited Game
pip: 77
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aABCCBBB-------aaadbcb---:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 43

1.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: +0.777
Player:
Opponent:
89.42% (G:1.95% B:0.03%)
10.58% (G:0.33% B:0.01%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.774...+0.779) - [96.9%]
Duration: 1 minute 57 seconds
2.Rollout18/4 5/2eq: +0.772 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
88.49% (G:4.58% B:0.08%)
11.51% (G:0.94% B:0.03%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.769...+0.776) - [3.1%]
Duration: 2 minutes 08 seconds
3.Rollout15/1* 4/1eq: +0.735 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
85.39% (G:10.63% B:0.18%)
14.61% (G:3.87% B:0.16%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.729...+0.741) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 36 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release


DMP:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 100
1 point match
pip: 77
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aABCCBBB-------aaadbcb---:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 43

1.XG Roller++6/3 6/2eq: +0.784
Player:
Opponent:
89.21% (G:2.23% B:0.03%)
10.79% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)
2.XG Roller++8/4 5/2eq: +0.768 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
88.42% (G:4.23% B:0.08%)
11.58% (G:0.90% B:0.03%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2


4a3a:





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 100
7 point match
pip: 77
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aABCCBBB-------aaadbcb---:1:-1:1:43:3:4:0:7:10
Blue to play 43

1.Rollout15/1* 4/1eq: +0.855
Player:
Opponent:
85.04% (G:11.18% B:0.42%)
14.96% (G:3.96% B:0.45%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.849...+0.860) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 39 seconds
2.Rollout18/4 5/2eq: +0.825 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:
88.29% (G:4.98% B:0.15%)
11.71% (G:1.04% B:0.07%)
Conf.: 0.003 (+0.822...+0.828) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 08 seconds
3.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: +0.797 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:
89.40% (G:1.77% B:0.06%)
10.60% (G:0.34% B:0.01%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.795...+0.800) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 43 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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