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4a3a: Missed Double + Rollout

Posted By: Wolfgang
Date: Tuesday, 20 October 2015, at 3:00 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Timothy Chow)

It's only a theoretical consideration, of course. Let's assume, Blue was very lazy playing this game, and he has forgotten to double at the score of 4a3a. Then 5/1* 4/1 would be terribly wrong, and 8/4 6/2 correct.

Variation: Missed Double Original Position




White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 100
7 point match
pip: 77
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aABCCBBB-------aaadbcb---:0:0:1:43:3:4:0:7:10
Blue to play 43

1.Rollout18/4 5/2eq: +1,000
Player:
Opponent:
87,27% (G:6,03% B:0,10%)
12,73% (G:0,77% B:0,03%)
Conf.: 0,000 (+1,000...+1,000) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1,0 second
2.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: +0,997 (-0,003)
Player:
Opponent:
88,55% (G:2,19% B:0,03%)
11,45% (G:0,19% B:0,00%)
Conf.: 0,001 (+0,996...+0,998) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1,4 seconds
3.Rollout15/1* 4/1eq: +0,906 (-0,094)
Player:
Opponent:
84,68% (G:11,43% B:0,30%)
15,32% (G:3,97% B:0,25%)
Conf.: 0,007 (+0,900...+0,913) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 42 seconds
4.XG Roller++8/5 8/4eq: +0,606 (-0,394)
Player:
Opponent:
72,93% (G:5,77% B:0,15%)
27,07% (G:2,94% B:0,10%)
5.XG Roller++7/4 7/3eq: +0,571 (-0,429)
Player:
Opponent:
72,44% (G:4,99% B:0,20%)
27,56% (G:2,78% B:0,08%)
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79028711
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 100
7 point match
pip: 77
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aABCCBBB-------aaadbcb---:1:-1:1:43:3:4:0:7:10
Blue to play 43

1.Rollout15/1* 4/1eq: +0,849
Player:
Opponent:
84,83% (G:11,18% B:0,38%)
15,17% (G:4,13% B:0,22%)
Conf.: 0,005 (+0,844...+0,854) - [100,0%]
Duration: 49,7 seconds
2.Rollout18/4 5/2eq: +0,824 (-0,025)
Player:
Opponent:
88,31% (G:4,87% B:0,15%)
11,69% (G:1,15% B:0,08%)
Conf.: 0,004 (+0,821...+0,828) - [0,0%]
Duration: 42,2 seconds
3.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: +0,797 (-0,051)
Player:
Opponent:
89,38% (G:1,77% B:0,08%)
10,62% (G:0,33% B:0,02%)
Conf.: 0,002 (+0,795...+0,800) - [0,0%]
Duration: 32,3 seconds
4.XG Roller++8/5 8/4eq: +0,477 (-0,372)
Player:
Opponent:
73,00% (G:5,88% B:0,14%)
27,00% (G:3,11% B:0,11%)
5.XG Roller++7/4 7/3eq: +0,444 (-0,405)
Player:
Opponent:
72,55% (G:4,75% B:0,16%)
27,45% (G:2,98% B:0,11%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 79028711
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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