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4a3a: Missed Double + Rollout

Posted By: Wolfgang
Date: Tuesday, 20 October 2015, at 3:00 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Timothy Chow)

It's only a theoretical consideration, of course. Let's assume, Blue was very lazy playing this game, and he has forgotten to double at the score of 4a3a. Then 5/1* 4/1 would be terribly wrong, and 8/4 6/2 correct.

Variation: Missed Double

Original Position

White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 100 7 point match pip: 77 score: 3 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-aABCCBBB-------aaadbcb---:0:0:1:43:3:4:0:7:10 Blue to play 43 1. Rollout1 8/4 5/2 eq: +1,000 Player: Opponent: 87,27% (G:6,03% B:0,10%) 12,73% (G:0,77% B:0,03%) Conf.: ± 0,000 (+1,000...+1,000) - [100,0%] Duration: 1,0 second 2. Rollout1 6/3 6/2 eq: +0,997 (-0,003) Player: Opponent: 88,55% (G:2,19% B:0,03%) 11,45% (G:0,19% B:0,00%) Conf.: ± 0,001 (+0,996...+0,998) - [0,0%] Duration: 1,4 seconds 3. Rollout1 5/1* 4/1 eq: +0,906 (-0,094) Player: Opponent: 84,68% (G:11,43% B:0,30%) 15,32% (G:3,97% B:0,25%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,900...+0,913) - [0,0%] Duration: 1 minute 42 seconds 4. XG Roller++ 8/5 8/4 eq: +0,606 (-0,394) Player: Opponent: 72,93% (G:5,77% B:0,15%) 27,07% (G:2,94% B:0,10%) 5. XG Roller++ 7/4 7/3 eq: +0,571 (-0,429) Player: Opponent: 72,44% (G:4,99% B:0,20%) 27,56% (G:2,78% B:0,08%) 1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 79028711 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 100 7 point match pip: 77 score: 3 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-aABCCBBB-------aaadbcb---:1:-1:1:43:3:4:0:7:10 Blue to play 43 1. Rollout1 5/1* 4/1 eq: +0,849 Player: Opponent: 84,83% (G:11,18% B:0,38%) 15,17% (G:4,13% B:0,22%) Conf.: ± 0,005 (+0,844...+0,854) - [100,0%] Duration: 49,7 seconds 2. Rollout1 8/4 5/2 eq: +0,824 (-0,025) Player: Opponent: 88,31% (G:4,87% B:0,15%) 11,69% (G:1,15% B:0,08%) Conf.: ± 0,004 (+0,821...+0,828) - [0,0%] Duration: 42,2 seconds 3. Rollout1 6/3 6/2 eq: +0,797 (-0,051) Player: Opponent: 89,38% (G:1,77% B:0,08%) 10,62% (G:0,33% B:0,02%) Conf.: ± 0,002 (+0,795...+0,800) - [0,0%] Duration: 32,3 seconds 4. XG Roller++ 8/5 8/4 eq: +0,477 (-0,372) Player: Opponent: 73,00% (G:5,88% B:0,14%) 27,00% (G:3,11% B:0,11%) 5. XG Roller++ 7/4 7/3 eq: +0,444 (-0,405) Player: Opponent: 72,55% (G:4,75% B:0,16%) 27,45% (G:2,98% B:0,11%) 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 79028711 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• I heard someone say you're supposed to just make the DMP play
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 18 October 2015, at 5:09 p.m.
  • I heard someone say you're supposed to just make the DMP play
    Wolfgang -- Sunday, 18 October 2015, at 5:57 p.m.
    • My GWC-Gammons estimation
      Wolfgang -- Sunday, 18 October 2015, at 6:08 p.m.
      • My GWC-Gammons estimation
        Bob Koca -- Sunday, 18 October 2015, at 10:53 p.m.
        • My GWC-Gammons estimation
          Wolfgang -- Monday, 19 October 2015, at 2:25 p.m.
  • I heard someone say you're supposed to just make the DMP play
    Chase -- Sunday, 18 October 2015, at 6:21 p.m.
  • I heard someone say you're supposed to just make the DMP play
    lenny -- Monday, 19 October 2015, at 6:16 p.m.
    • I heard someone say you're supposed to just make the DMP play
      neilkaz -- Monday, 19 October 2015, at 6:54 p.m.
  • I heard someone say you're supposed to just make the DMP play
    ah_clem -- Monday, 19 October 2015, at 6:47 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 19 October 2015, at 11:18 p.m.
    • Variant
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 20 October 2015, at 7:59 a.m.
      • Variant
        scotty -- Tuesday, 20 October 2015, at 8:11 a.m.
    • 4a3a: Missed Double + Rollout
      Wolfgang -- Tuesday, 20 October 2015, at 3:00 p.m.