Three Variants

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Three Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 23 October 2015, at 5:35 p.m.

In Response To: *Rollout* - 31 to play at DMP (Chase)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157

1 point match

pip: 176
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--Ba--C-Ba-bcC-A-cBcb--A-A:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:1:10
Original Position

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 18/15 eq: -0.266
Player:
Opponent: 36.71% (G:9.42% B:0.77%)
63.29% (G:25.40% B:3.94%) Conf.: � 0.001 (-0.267...-0.265) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 42 minutes
2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/3* eq: -0.269 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent: 36.55% (G:8.83% B:0.83%)
63.45% (G:29.23% B:5.83%) Conf.: � 0.001 (-0.270...-0.268) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 33 minutes
3. Rollout² Bar/21 eq: -0.287 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent: 35.65% (G:9.04% B:0.85%)
64.35% (G:29.87% B:4.49%) Conf.: � 0.008 (-0.295...-0.279) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 35 seconds
4. Rollout² Bar/22 23/22 eq: -0.290 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent: 35.52% (G:8.85% B:0.79%)
64.48% (G:27.32% B:3.25%) Conf.: � 0.006 (-0.296...-0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 52 seconds
5. Rollout² Bar/22 15/14 eq: -0.298 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent: 35.12% (G:8.79% B:1.03%)
64.88% (G:27.50% B:4.29%) Conf.: � 0.006 (-0.304...-0.291) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 33 seconds

¹ 41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47676897
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47676897
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Chase's rollout of his (original) position.
R (Run, bar/24 18/15) is a typical Nackgammon play. With multiple checkers back on both sides (and therefore less ammunition for the home boards), it is a common strategy to make the 14pt, 15pt or 16pt to help control one's own outer board and frustrate the opponent's similar aim.
Below are three variants.
[I suspect that higher-ply rollouts would relatively weaken H (Hit, bar/24 6/3*), though probably not enough to overturn.]
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155

1 point match

pip: 176
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--Ba--C-B--ccC-A-cBcb--A-A:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:1:10
Variant 1

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/3* eq: -0.285
Player:
Opponent: 35.73% (G:7.19% B:0.61%)
64.27% (G:26.70% B:4.86%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (-0.289...-0.282) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 24 minutes
2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 18/15 eq: -0.294 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent: 35.32% (G:7.98% B:0.73%)
64.68% (G:25.84% B:4.49%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (-0.297...-0.291) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 08 minutes
3. Rollout¹ Bar/22 23/22 eq: -0.295 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent: 35.25% (G:6.81% B:0.52%)
64.75% (G:23.52% B:2.95%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (-0.298...-0.292) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 03 minutes
4. Rollout¹ Bar/24 13/10 eq: -0.300 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent: 35.00% (G:7.31% B:0.70%)
65.00% (G:27.17% B:5.18%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (-0.303...-0.297) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 13 minutes
5. Rollout² Bar/21 eq: -0.309 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent: 34.55% (G:6.94% B:0.57%)
65.45% (G:27.70% B:4.48%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.005 (-0.314...-0.304) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 34 minutes
6. Rollout² Bar/22 15/14 eq: -0.314 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent: 34.31% (G:6.64% B:0.70%)
65.69% (G:28.14% B:4.01%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.005 (-0.319...-0.309) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
7. Rollout² Bar/22 6/5 eq: -0.316 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent: 34.19% (G:6.15% B:0.53%)
65.81% (G:31.38% B:5.84%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.005 (-0.321...-0.311) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 04 minutes

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 152

1 point match

pip: 176
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--Ba--C-Ba-bbC-A-dBcb--A-A:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:1:10
Variant 2

1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 23/22 eq: -0.268
Player:
Opponent: 36.60% (G:7.72% B:0.79%)
63.40% (G:26.23% B:3.43%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (-0.271...-0.265) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 32 minutes
2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/3* eq: -0.276 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent: 36.20% (G:7.85% B:0.68%)
63.80% (G:29.30% B:6.46%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (-0.279...-0.273) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 01 minute
3. Rollout¹ Bar/24 18/15 eq: -0.283 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent: 35.84% (G:8.39% B:0.71%)
64.16% (G:26.82% B:4.50%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (-0.286...-0.280) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 18 minutes
4. Rollout² Bar/21 eq: -0.295 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent: 35.25% (G:7.23% B:0.58%)
64.75% (G:29.15% B:5.33%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.006 (-0.301...-0.289) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
5. Rollout² Bar/22 15/14 eq: -0.301 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent: 34.97% (G:7.63% B:0.73%)
65.03% (G:29.37% B:5.15%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.006 (-0.307...-0.294) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
6. Rollout² Bar/24 13/10 eq: -0.303 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent: 34.87% (G:7.17% B:0.88%)
65.13% (G:33.55% B:8.01%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.007 (-0.310...-0.296) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157

1 point match

pip: 175
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--Ba--C-Ba-bcC-A-cBcb-A--A:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:1:10
Variant 3

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/3* eq: -0.261
Player:
Opponent: 36.96% (G:8.21% B:0.85%)
63.04% (G:26.95% B:5.87%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.004 (-0.264...-0.257) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 46 minutes
2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 18/15 eq: -0.274 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent: 36.29% (G:9.03% B:0.98%)
63.71% (G:25.78% B:5.06%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (-0.277...-0.271) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 26 minutes
3. Rollout² Bar/22 15/14 eq: -0.282 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent: 35.89% (G:7.15% B:0.68%)
64.11% (G:24.24% B:3.14%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.004 (-0.287...-0.278) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes
4. Rollout³ Bar/22 6/5 eq: -0.290 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent: 35.50% (G:6.71% B:0.63%)
64.50% (G:28.02% B:4.33%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.007 (-0.297...-0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
5. Rollout³ Bar/21 eq: -0.293 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent: 35.36% (G:7.89% B:0.67%)
64.64% (G:29.32% B:4.98%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.006 (-0.299...-0.286) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

31 to play at DMP
Chase -- Wednesday, 14 October 2015, at 7:58 p.m.
- 31 to play at DMP
  Sean Garber -- Wednesday, 14 October 2015, at 8:24 p.m.
- 31 to play at DMP
  Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 14 October 2015, at 10:50 p.m.
- 31 to play at DMP
  Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 14 October 2015, at 11:26 p.m.
  - 31 to play at DMP
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 15 October 2015, at 4:08 p.m.
    - 31 to play at DMP
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Friday, 16 October 2015, at 4:54 p.m.
      - 31 to play at DMP
        neilkaz -- Saturday, 17 October 2015, at 12:02 a.m.
      - 31 to play at DMP
        Joe Russell -- Saturday, 17 October 2015, at 9:15 a.m.
- 31 to play at DMP
  ah_clem -- Thursday, 15 October 2015, at 3:51 p.m.
- 31 to play at DMP
  Mick Z -- Friday, 16 October 2015, at 7:49 p.m.
- 31 to play at DMP
  hominid -- Friday, 16 October 2015, at 11:27 p.m.
- *Rollout* - 31 to play at DMP
  Chase -- Sunday, 18 October 2015, at 6:36 a.m.
  - *Rollout* - 31 to play at DMP
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 18 October 2015, at 4:57 p.m.
  - Three Variants
    Nack Ballard -- Friday, 23 October 2015, at 5:35 p.m.
- 31 to play at DMP
  hominid -- Sunday, 18 October 2015, at 7:09 p.m.
  - 31 to play at DMP
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 19 October 2015, at 12:38 a.m.
  - 31 to play at DMP
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 19 October 2015, at 12:45 a.m.

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