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Bear-in vs disconnected anchors - OTB & RO

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Thursday, 5 November 2015, at 6:21 p.m.

In Response To: Bear-in vs disconnected anchors (Karol Szczerek)

Opp's frontal formation isn't set yet, but already threatening. It might be the last chance to use a hit.

6/1* 5/1 strips too much. With another spare on the 4-8pt it would look much better.

13/8 5/1* gives great flexibility. I'd happily trade 3-5 shots now to get it. But 11 shots? Bit too much, I've discarded it first.

13/4 - smooth, but we don't have a safe enough frontal formation/prime, so I felt like I need to address the ace point now or I'll get into trouble in few rolls if I don't get perfect numbers.

Because I hate ugly distribution, I finally chose 13/4 over the PoH.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
11 point match
pip: 114
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ab-BDC-Bb---D---bacca----:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout113/8 5/1* eq: +0,421
Player:
Opponent:		66,86% (G:26,01% B:1,55%)
33,14% (G:5,89% B:0,23%)		Conf.: ± 0,005 (+0,416...+0,426) - [100,0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 22 seconds
2.playedRollout113/4eq: +0,409 (-0,012)
Player:
Opponent:		67,28% (G:23,44% B:1,28%)
32,72% (G:5,17% B:0,19%)		Conf.: ± 0,005 (+0,405...+0,414) - [0,0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 10 seconds
3.Rollout16/1* 5/1eq: +0,387 (-0,034)
Player:
Opponent:		65,44% (G:26,16% B:1,21%)
34,56% (G:5,73% B:0,23%)		Conf.: ± 0,005 (+0,382...+0,392) - [0,0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 53 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

I see the rollout results, but I still can't get over the 11 immediate shots in my head. Is it also so inexpected to You, or does it looks natural? Any hints?

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