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Two major fuck-ups (why so big?)

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Tuesday, 24 November 2015, at 4:59 a.m.

In Response To: Two major fuck-ups (why so big?) (Snua)

I thought it would be a closer take. I never said that running was incorrect but was questioning if it achieved major fuck up level.

My RO gives a little bit closer on the take decision.





White is Player 1

score: 4
pip: 134
7 point match
pip: 123
score: 2

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-a----ECB---bDaA-bbcb--b--:0:0:-1:00:4:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.043% (G:21.626% B:0.265%) 65.514% (G:21.697% B:0.240%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.957% (G:4.239% B:0.282%) 34.486% (G:4.318% B:0.203%)
Cubeless Equities +0.4298 +1.0208
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6595 (-0.2262)±0.0087 (+0.6508..+0.6682)
Double/Take:+0.8857±0.0131 (+0.8727..+0.8988)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.1143)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16132000
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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