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Variant

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 27 November 2015, at 4:16 p.m.

In Response To: RO (Snua)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 173 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 160 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-aaAE-B---dD---cBe-A----:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
64S-43Z-53K-41-64@-51X-43K-43-41

1.	XG Roller++	8/4* 5/4	eq: +0.273
	Player: Opponent: 55.96% (G:17.71% B:0.83%) 44.04% (G:10.66% B:0.39%)
2.	XG Roller++	13/9 6/5	eq: +0.268 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 56.51% (G:15.44% B:0.66%) 43.49% (G:10.31% B:0.38%)
3.	XG Roller++	18/14 6/5	eq: +0.260 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 56.93% (G:14.27% B:0.67%) 43.07% (G:10.57% B:0.42%)
4.	XG Roller++	6/5 6/2	eq: +0.233 (-0.040)
	Player: Opponent: 55.69% (G:15.13% B:0.59%) 44.31% (G:10.41% B:0.37%)
5.	XG Roller++	8/4* 6/5	eq: +0.212 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 54.51% (G:16.25% B:0.72%) 45.49% (G:12.03% B:0.49%)

Above is an XGR++ evaluation of the original position. (Snua posted a rollout here, but with so few trials that the confidence intervals for each of the top two plays exceed the margin between them.)

Below is a "contrasting" variant. (I bothered to create only the one, in the absence of a sufficient-length rollout.)

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 173 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 162 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-aaAE-B---dD---cBe---A--:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Variant Position Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 21/23

1.	Rollout1	13/9 6/5	eq: +0.271
	Player: Opponent: 56.25% (G:16.21% B:0.75%) 43.75% (G:11.04% B:0.46%) Conf.: กำ 0.008 (+0.263...+0.278) - [90.0%] Duration: 6 hours 21 minutes
2.	Rollout1	8/4* 5/4	eq: +0.263 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 55.64% (G:17.58% B:0.90%) 44.36% (G:11.46% B:0.44%) Conf.: กำ 0.008 (+0.255...+0.271) - [10.0%] Duration: 5 hours 57 minutes
3.	Rollout1	6/5 6/2	eq: +0.247 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 55.80% (G:16.11% B:0.67%) 44.20% (G:11.62% B:0.45%) Conf.: กำ 0.008 (+0.239...+0.255) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 hours 58 minutes
4.	Rollout2	18/14 6/5	eq: +0.217 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 55.38% (G:15.00% B:0.76%) 44.62% (G:11.75% B:0.55%) Conf.: กำ 0.015 (+0.202...+0.232) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes
5.	Rollout2	8/4* 6/5	eq: +0.187 (-0.083)
	Player: Opponent: 54.14% (G:16.64% B:0.79%) 45.86% (G:12.96% B:0.65%) Conf.: กำ 0.019 (+0.168...+0.207) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Any shitty four
  Snua -- Tuesday, 24 November 2015, at 11:34 a.m.
  • Any shitty four
    Chase -- Tuesday, 24 November 2015, at 4:20 p.m.
    • Any shitty four
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 24 November 2015, at 4:55 p.m.
  • RO
    Snua -- Friday, 27 November 2015, at 3:20 p.m.
    • Variant
      Nack Ballard -- Friday, 27 November 2015, at 4:16 p.m.
    • Only 3 Ply but Much Longer RO
      Colin Owen -- Friday, 27 November 2015, at 11:09 p.m.
      • Three Additional Variants
        Nack Ballard -- Monday, 30 November 2015, at 7:12 p.m.