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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 2 December 2015, at 4:31 p.m.

In Response To: 31P-55P-44B-63R. Cube action at 3a-3a? (John O'Hagan)

It went D/T OTB. White's take looked clear but I figured it was still a correct double ATS since White's tp is higher than normal at 3a-3a. The RO agrees:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
3 point match
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BD-BBa-cC---c-eB-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.70% (G:19.71% B:0.84%) 66.07% (G:20.11% B:1.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.30% (G:6.78% B:0.57%) 33.93% (G:7.18% B:0.57%)
Cubeless Equities +0.517 +1.135
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.778 (-0.043)±0.010 (+0.768..+0.788)
Double/Take:+0.821±0.013 (+0.807..+0.834)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.179)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 48 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

How about unlimited games? White's tp is lower here than at 3a-3a which makes this a small no double:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BD-BBa-cC---c-eB-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.06% (G:18.27% B:0.53%) 66.06% (G:19.97% B:0.55%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.94% (G:5.89% B:0.21%) 33.94% (G:6.16% B:0.23%)
Cubeless Equities +0.448 +0.925
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.688±0.011 (+0.676..+0.699)
Double/Take:+0.665 (-0.022)±0.009 (+0.656..+0.675)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.312)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.2%
Rollout details
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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