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Estimating winning chances

Posted By: hominid
Date: Wednesday, 9 December 2015, at 1:28 p.m.

In Response To: Estimating winning chances (Chase)

This looks like two questions in one to me. Without a doubt white with its huge racing lead and crossover count certainly has a cube. The point is has blue enough to take. A roll count of whites problem rolls 61 62 63 and 11 33 eight rolls for 22%. Blues only difficult reply is 61 being human I will ignore that. There's a chance that blue will get a stab at a blot on whites second roll. Hurray for roll counters.We are very close to the magic 25% so double take. Personally I would drop. I have never been happy with the thought that I have to make another 99 decisions to be correct. I'm the guy that knows that if its been heads for the last X tosses the next time it will be tails. The trouble is a can't prove it. MMM maybe its not the same analogy.

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