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Estimating winning chances

Posted By: Chase
Date: Wednesday, 9 December 2015, at 8:34 p.m.

In Response To: Estimating winning chances (John O'Hagan)

Thanks, John, for the detailed explanation. Very impressive and (eventually, see below) helpful. :)

I tried doing something similar over the board and ended up taking a lot of time and getting a very inaccurate answer (~16%). I was hoping there was an easier way!

Thanks, also, Phil, for the thoughtful follow-up. It's encouraging to know that I'm not alone in feeling a bit daunted or in wanting to find shortcuts. But it's also encouraging to hear that it gets better with practice. I have a background in music, so I know the process. It's just a matter of adopting a methodical approach and then putting in the time. I was just hoping for an easier way! I guess if there were, we'd all be giants.

Appreciate the help from you both.

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