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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 31 December 2015, at 4:32 a.m.

In Response To: Early game double 3's to play: Too many choices! (Timothy Chow)

If you haven't studied ATS opening plays then not playing an early 33 in pairs may come as a surprise. As neilkaz says, the GG play is to build the board and invite a blot-hitting contest. But isn't White's gammon value on a centered cube elevated? This is where XG's Rollout Statistics come in handy. They reveal that White wins an undoubled gammon less than 5% from here. That's a fact that traditional rollout information doesn't tell you.

		White is Player 2 score: 5 pip: 151 7 point match pip: 163 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BDbB---cEb--c-e----B-:0:0:1:33:1:5:0:7:10
Blue to play 33

1.	Rollout1	24/21 13/10 6/3(2)	eq: +0.060
	Player: Opponent: 46.64% (G:11.74% B:0.33%) 53.36% (G:11.49% B:1.23%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.047...+0.073) - [100.0%] Duration: 26 minutes 27 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/21 13/10(3)	eq: +0.025 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 46.22% (G:11.11% B:0.31%) 53.78% (G:11.85% B:1.15%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.013...+0.037) - [0.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 46 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/21(2) 13/10(2)	eq: +0.022 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 47.28% (G:7.97% B:0.22%) 52.72% (G:7.43% B:0.56%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.010...+0.033) - [0.0%] Duration: 24 minutes 51 seconds
4.	Rollout1	24/21 13/10(2) 6/3	eq: +0.017 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 45.89% (G:11.80% B:0.31%) 54.11% (G:13.37% B:1.12%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.004...+0.029) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 54 seconds
5.	Rollout1	13/10(2) 6/3(2)	eq: +0.013 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 45.73% (G:11.89% B:0.33%) 54.27% (G:12.73% B:1.00%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.001...+0.026) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 23 seconds
6.	XG Roller++	24/21(2) 6/3(2)	eq: +0.006 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 46.49% (G:7.20% B:0.20%) 53.51% (G:6.01% B:0.15%)
7.	XG Roller++	24/18(2)	eq: -0.016 (-0.076)
	Player: Opponent: 46.78% (G:5.56% B:0.15%) 53.22% (G:5.77% B:0.15%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---

Unlimited:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 151 Unlimited Game pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BDbB---cEb--c-e----B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.	Rollout1	24/21(2) 13/10(2)	eq: -0.090
	Player: Opponent: 47.37% (G:7.82% B:0.26%) 52.63% (G:6.56% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.101...-0.078) - [97.2%] Duration: 26 minutes 43 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/18(2)	eq: -0.105 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 46.93% (G:6.12% B:0.21%) 53.07% (G:6.52% B:0.19%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.116...-0.095) - [1.9%] Duration: 26 minutes 38 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/21(2) 6/3(2)	eq: -0.108 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 46.93% (G:7.72% B:0.22%) 53.07% (G:6.69% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.119...-0.097) - [0.9%] Duration: 24 minutes 48 seconds
4.	Rollout1	24/21 13/10 6/3(2)	eq: -0.124 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 46.70% (G:12.29% B:0.45%) 53.30% (G:11.60% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.137...-0.111) - [0.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 21 seconds
5.	Rollout1	24/21 13/10(3)	eq: -0.128 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 46.41% (G:10.43% B:0.40%) 53.59% (G:10.87% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.141...-0.114) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 37 seconds
6.	Rollout1	24/21(2) 13/10 6/3	eq: -0.149 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 45.74% (G:8.40% B:0.24%) 54.26% (G:7.46% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.160...-0.138) - [0.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 15 seconds
7.	Rollout1	24/21 13/10(2) 6/3	eq: -0.152 (-0.062)
	Player: Opponent: 46.00% (G:11.81% B:0.43%) 54.00% (G:12.95% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.165...-0.139) - [0.0%] Duration: 23 minutes 07 seconds
8.	XG Roller++	13/10(2) 6/3(2)	eq: -0.147 (-0.057)
	Player: Opponent: 45.54% (G:10.75% B:0.31%) 54.46% (G:11.54% B:0.38%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Messages In This Thread

• Early game double 3's to play: Too many choices!
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 29 December 2015, at 11:34 p.m.
  • Early game double 3's to play: Too many choices!
    Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 30 December 2015, at 12:04 a.m.
  • Early game double 3's to play: Too many choices!
    scotty -- Wednesday, 30 December 2015, at 12:32 a.m.
  • Early game double 3's to play: Too many choices!
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 30 December 2015, at 3:24 a.m.
  • Early game double 3's to play: Too many choices!
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 30 December 2015, at 4:28 p.m.
  • Early game double 3's to play: Too many choices!
    johnk -- Wednesday, 30 December 2015, at 8:59 p.m.
  • Early game double 3's to play: Too many choices!
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 30 December 2015, at 11:13 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 31 December 2015, at 4:32 a.m.
    • Variants
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 3 January 2016, at 6:50 p.m.