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Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 3 January 2016, at 6:50 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Timothy Chow)





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 151
7 point match
pip: 163
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BDbB---cEb--c-e----B-:0:0:1:33:1:5:0:7:10

Original Position.....62S-31P-62S-33


1.Rollout124/21 13/10 6/3(2)eq: +0.060
Player:
Opponent:		46.64% (G:11.74% B:0.33%)
53.36% (G:11.49% B:1.23%)		Conf.: � 0.013 (+0.047...+0.073) - [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout124/21 13/10(3)eq: +0.025 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		46.22% (G:11.11% B:0.31%)
53.78% (G:11.85% B:1.15%)		Conf.: � 0.012 (+0.013...+0.037) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 46 seconds
3.Rollout124/21(2) 13/10(2)eq: +0.022 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		47.28% (G:7.97% B:0.22%)
52.72% (G:7.43% B:0.56%)		Conf.: � 0.011 (+0.010...+0.033) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 51 seconds
4.Rollout124/21 13/10(2) 6/3eq: +0.017 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		45.89% (G:11.80% B:0.31%)
54.11% (G:13.37% B:1.12%)		Conf.: � 0.013 (+0.004...+0.029) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 54 seconds
5.Rollout113/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.013 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		45.73% (G:11.89% B:0.33%)
54.27% (G:12.73% B:1.00%)		Conf.: � 0.012 (+0.001...+0.026) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 23 seconds
6.XG Roller++24/21(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.006 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		46.49% (G:7.20% B:0.20%)
53.51% (G:6.01% B:0.15%)
7.XG Roller++24/18(2)eq: -0.016 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:		46.78% (G:5.56% B:0.15%)
53.22% (G:5.77% B:0.15%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Tim's rollout of the original position.

Below are three variants. The first two contrast the original. The third is a cusp.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 149
7 point match
pip: 163
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BDbB---cE-b-c-e----B-:0:0:1:33:1:5:0:7:10

Variant 1.....63S-31P-63S-33
White has her 10pt instead of 11pt


1.Rollout124/21(2) 13/10(2)eq: -0.011
Player:
Opponent:		45.92% (G:8.79% B:0.23%)
54.08% (G:7.32% B:0.34%)		Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-0.017...-0.005) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 44 minutes
2.Rollout124/21(2) 6/3(2)eq: -0.036 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		45.32% (G:8.53% B:0.22%)
54.68% (G:7.45% B:0.40%)		Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-0.042...-0.030) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 31 minutes
3.Rollout224/21(2) 13/10 6/3eq: -0.048 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		44.49% (G:9.36% B:0.24%)
55.51% (G:8.91% B:0.64%)		Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.057...-0.039) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
4.Rollout224/18(2)eq: -0.051 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		45.59% (G:6.18% B:0.19%)
54.41% (G:6.84% B:0.45%)		Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.058...-0.043) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
5.Rollout313/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: -0.057 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:		44.03% (G:10.83% B:0.29%)
55.97% (G:13.10% B:0.99%)		Conf.: กำ 0.013 (-0.069...-0.044) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
6.Rollout324/21 13/10 6/3(2)eq: -0.071 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:		43.50% (G:10.81% B:0.29%)
56.50% (G:12.73% B:1.17%)		Conf.: กำ 0.013 (-0.084...-0.059) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 08 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 157
7 point match
pip: 163
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----bBD-B---cEb--c-e----B-:0:0:1:33:1:5:0:7:10

Variant 2.....32S-31P-32S-33
White has her 21pt instead of 18pt


1.Rollout124/21(2) 13/10(2)eq: +0.331
Player:
Opponent:		55.82% (G:8.44% B:0.30%)
44.18% (G:9.00% B:0.67%)		Conf.: กำ 0.008 (+0.323...+0.339) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 14 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 13/10(3)eq: +0.287 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:		54.16% (G:9.63% B:0.34%)
45.84% (G:11.47% B:0.74%)		Conf.: กำ 0.009 (+0.278...+0.296) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 12 minutes
3.Rollout213/10(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.263 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:		53.46% (G:9.95% B:0.37%)
46.54% (G:12.36% B:0.94%)		Conf.: กำ 0.012 (+0.251...+0.275) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
4.Rollout224/21 13/10(2) 6/3eq: +0.254 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:		53.21% (G:10.38% B:0.33%)
46.79% (G:13.49% B:1.43%)		Conf.: กำ 0.014 (+0.240...+0.268) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
 
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 147
7 point match
pip: 163
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----BD-Bb--cEb--c-e----B-:0:0:1:33:1:5:0:7:10

Variant 3.....32U-31P-65P-33
White has her 16pt instead of 18pt


1.Rollout124/21 13/10(2) 6/3eq: -0.101
Player:
Opponent:		42.34% (G:11.13% B:0.29%)
57.66% (G:11.87% B:1.11%)		Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.108...-0.095) - [66.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 51 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 13/10 6/3(2)eq: -0.103 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		42.19% (G:11.28% B:0.28%)
57.81% (G:11.91% B:0.96%)		Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.110...-0.097) - [33.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes
3.Rollout124/21 13/10(3)eq: -0.122 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		42.15% (G:10.28% B:0.28%)
57.85% (G:11.24% B:0.89%)		Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.129...-0.116) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 23 minutes
4.Rollout124/21 8/5 6/3(2)eq: -0.130 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:		41.78% (G:10.71% B:0.27%)
58.22% (G:10.99% B:0.81%)		Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-0.136...-0.123) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 05 minutes
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65876923
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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