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Variants
Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 3 January 2016, at 6:50 p.m.
In Response To: Rollout (Timothy Chow)
White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 1517 point match pip: 163
score: 1
Blue is Player 1XGID=BDbBcEbceB:0:0:1:33:1:5:0:7:10 Original Position.....62S31P62S33
1. Rollout^{1} 24/21 13/10 6/3(2) eq: +0.060
Player:
Opponent:46.64% (G:11.74% B:0.33%)
53.36% (G:11.49% B:1.23%)Conf.: � 0.013 (+0.047...+0.073)  [100.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 27 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 24/21 13/10(3) eq: +0.025 (0.035)
Player:
Opponent:46.22% (G:11.11% B:0.31%)
53.78% (G:11.85% B:1.15%)Conf.: � 0.012 (+0.013...+0.037)  [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 46 seconds3. Rollout^{1} 24/21(2) 13/10(2) eq: +0.022 (0.038)
Player:
Opponent:47.28% (G:7.97% B:0.22%)
52.72% (G:7.43% B:0.56%)Conf.: � 0.011 (+0.010...+0.033)  [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 51 seconds4. Rollout^{1} 24/21 13/10(2) 6/3 eq: +0.017 (0.043)
Player:
Opponent:45.89% (G:11.80% B:0.31%)
54.11% (G:13.37% B:1.12%)Conf.: � 0.013 (+0.004...+0.029)  [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 54 seconds5. Rollout^{1} 13/10(2) 6/3(2) eq: +0.013 (0.047)
Player:
Opponent:45.73% (G:11.89% B:0.33%)
54.27% (G:12.73% B:1.00%)Conf.: � 0.012 (+0.001...+0.026)  [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 23 seconds6. XG Roller++ 24/21(2) 6/3(2) eq: +0.006 (0.054)
Player:
Opponent:46.49% (G:7.20% B:0.20%)
53.51% (G:6.01% B:0.15%)7. XG Roller++ 24/18(2) eq: 0.016 (0.076)
Player:
Opponent:46.78% (G:5.56% B:0.15%)
53.22% (G:5.77% B:0.15%)^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerAbove is Tim's rollout of the original position.
Below are three variants. The first two contrast the original. The third is a cusp.
Nack
White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 1497 point match pip: 163
score: 1
Blue is Player 1XGID=BDbBcEbceB:0:0:1:33:1:5:0:7:10 Variant 1.....63S31P63S33
White has her 10pt instead of 11pt
1. Rollout^{1} 24/21(2) 13/10(2) eq: 0.011
Player:
Opponent:45.92% (G:8.79% B:0.23%)
54.08% (G:7.32% B:0.34%)Conf.: กำ 0.006 (0.017...0.005)  [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 44 minutes2. Rollout^{1} 24/21(2) 6/3(2) eq: 0.036 (0.025)
Player:
Opponent:45.32% (G:8.53% B:0.22%)
54.68% (G:7.45% B:0.40%)Conf.: กำ 0.006 (0.042...0.030)  [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 31 minutes3. Rollout^{2} 24/21(2) 13/10 6/3 eq: 0.048 (0.037)
Player:
Opponent:44.49% (G:9.36% B:0.24%)
55.51% (G:8.91% B:0.64%)Conf.: กำ 0.009 (0.057...0.039)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes4. Rollout^{2} 24/18(2) eq: 0.051 (0.039)
Player:
Opponent:45.59% (G:6.18% B:0.19%)
54.41% (G:6.84% B:0.45%)Conf.: กำ 0.007 (0.058...0.043)  [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes5. Rollout^{3} 13/10(2) 6/3(2) eq: 0.057 (0.045)
Player:
Opponent:44.03% (G:10.83% B:0.29%)
55.97% (G:13.10% B:0.99%)Conf.: กำ 0.013 (0.069...0.044)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute6. Rollout^{3} 24/21 13/10 6/3(2) eq: 0.071 (0.060)
Player:
Opponent:43.50% (G:10.81% B:0.29%)
56.50% (G:12.73% B:1.17%)Conf.: กำ 0.013 (0.084...0.059)  [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 08 seconds^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{3} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 1577 point match pip: 163
score: 1
Blue is Player 1XGID=bBDBcEbceB:0:0:1:33:1:5:0:7:10 Variant 2.....32S31P32S33
White has her 21pt instead of 18pt
1. Rollout^{1} 24/21(2) 13/10(2) eq: +0.331
Player:
Opponent:55.82% (G:8.44% B:0.30%)
44.18% (G:9.00% B:0.67%)Conf.: กำ 0.008 (+0.323...+0.339)  [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 14 minutes2. Rollout^{1} 24/21 13/10(3) eq: +0.287 (0.044)
Player:
Opponent:54.16% (G:9.63% B:0.34%)
45.84% (G:11.47% B:0.74%)Conf.: กำ 0.009 (+0.278...+0.296)  [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 12 minutes3. Rollout^{2} 13/10(2) 6/3(2) eq: +0.263 (0.068)
Player:
Opponent:53.46% (G:9.95% B:0.37%)
46.54% (G:12.36% B:0.94%)Conf.: กำ 0.012 (+0.251...+0.275)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes4. Rollout^{2} 24/21 13/10(2) 6/3 eq: +0.254 (0.076)
Player:
Opponent:53.21% (G:10.38% B:0.33%)
46.79% (G:13.49% B:1.43%)Conf.: กำ 0.014 (+0.240...+0.268)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes^{1} 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 1477 point match pip: 163
score: 1
Blue is Player 1XGID=BDBbcEbceB:0:0:1:33:1:5:0:7:10 Variant 3.....32U31P65P33
White has her 16pt instead of 18pt
1. Rollout^{1} 24/21 13/10(2) 6/3 eq: 0.101
Player:
Opponent:42.34% (G:11.13% B:0.29%)
57.66% (G:11.87% B:1.11%)Conf.: กำ 0.007 (0.108...0.095)  [66.4%]
Duration: 2 hours 51 minutes2. Rollout^{1} 24/21 13/10 6/3(2) eq: 0.103 (0.002)
Player:
Opponent:42.19% (G:11.28% B:0.28%)
57.81% (G:11.91% B:0.96%)Conf.: กำ 0.007 (0.110...0.097)  [33.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes3. Rollout^{1} 24/21 13/10(3) eq: 0.122 (0.021)
Player:
Opponent:42.15% (G:10.28% B:0.28%)
57.85% (G:11.24% B:0.89%)Conf.: กำ 0.007 (0.129...0.116)  [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 23 minutes4. Rollout^{1} 24/21 8/5 6/3(2) eq: 0.130 (0.028)
Player:
Opponent:41.78% (G:10.71% B:0.27%)
58.22% (G:10.99% B:0.81%)Conf.: กำ 0.006 (0.136...0.123)  [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 05 minutes^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65876923
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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