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Attack AtS - RO & variants

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Saturday, 23 January 2016, at 11:47 p.m.

In Response To: Attack AtS (Karol Szczerek)

Like it've been said already, making a point is almost always better then hitting 1 more, leaving a blot in the process at NMS.

But I've stopped for a sec AtS:
- being gammoned doesn't matter
- our gv is >1.0
- I love egzotic plays

Finally figured that I just have to win many more games after 6/2 than gammons after the switch.
Turns out not so many.
The plays are pretty close.

		White is Player 2 score: 8 pip: 133 11 point match pip: 96 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBABaBCb-AB--A--A-bbcb--b-:2:-1:1:31:1:8:0:11:10
Blue to play 31

1.	Rollout1	6/2	eq: +1,643
	Player: Opponent: 75,79% (G:51,76% B:0,48%) 24,21% (G:7,28% B:0,43%) Conf.: ± 0,003 (+1,640...+1,646) - [100,0%] Duration: 10 minutes 05 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/2 5/4*	eq: +1,620 (-0,023)
	Player: Opponent: 73,18% (G:53,15% B:0,45%) 26,82% (G:12,40% B:1,32%) Conf.: ± 0,003 (+1,617...+1,623) - [0,0%] Duration: 9 minutes 49 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant A

Compared to original position, player on roll is adjusted 9/8.

		White is Player 2 score: 8 pip: 133 11 point match pip: 95 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBABaBCbA-B--A--A-bbcb--b-:2:-1:1:31:1:8:0:11:10
Blue to play 31

This small change diversifies our numbers after the hit:
- 2s, 4s and 6s covers the slot
- 1s, 3s and 5s aims at the vacant point

In the original position:
- 2s, 5s and 6s covered the slot
- 1s, 4s and 5s (duplicated) aimed at the vacant point
- 3s were blank

In the original position we were paying 2.6% wins for 1,4% gammons.
In this variant we are paying 3,2% wins for 5,1% gammons (!).

1.	Rollout1	5/2 5/4*	eq: +1,673
	Player: Opponent: 73,82% (G:54,95% B:0,50%) 26,18% (G:11,86% B:1,31%) Conf.: ± 0,004 (+1,668...+1,677) - [100,0%] Duration: 5 minutes 36 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/2	eq: +1,626 (-0,047)
	Player: Opponent: 77,01% (G:49,84% B:0,47%) 22,99% (G:6,37% B:0,36%) Conf.: ± 0,004 (+1,622...+1,630) - [0,0%] Duration: 5 minutes 47 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant B

Compared to variant A, top player is adjusted 1/3(2) 5/6.

		White is Player 2 score: 8 pip: 138 11 point match pip: 95 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBABaBCbA-B--A--A-bcbbb---:2:-1:1:31:1:8:0:11:10
Blue to play 31

Giving the defender a stronger frontal structure doesn't change the wins/gammons ratio between the plays too much. The cutdown of overall winrate doesn't matter for decision making. Switch is still favourable AtS.

We are paying 3,1% wins for 4,1% gammons.
(original: 2,6% for 1,4% / variant A: 3,2% for 5,1%)

1.	Rollout1	5/2 5/4*	eq: +1,458
	Player: Opponent: 67,33% (G:51,18% B:0,37%) 32,67% (G:12,31% B:2,26%) Conf.: ± 0,004 (+1,455...+1,462) - [100,0%] Duration: 13 minutes 35 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/2	eq: +1,431 (-0,027)
	Player: Opponent: 70,38% (G:47,09% B:0,36%) 29,62% (G:6,79% B:0,72%) Conf.: ± 0,003 (+1,428...+1,434) - [0,0%] Duration: 13 minutes 15 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant C

Compared to original position, top player is adjusted 4/6 4/7.

		White is Player 2 score: 8 pip: 138 11 point match pip: 96 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBABaBCb-AB--A--A-ccc---b-:2:-1:1:31:1:8:0:11:10
Blue to play 31

Giving the defender weaker board moves the attacking play on top too.
I guess it's because after we're hit, we enter fast enough to keep opp on the bar and continue the blitz. So we claim a chunk of gammons here.

We're paying 3,3% wins for 4,7% gammons.
(original: 2,6% for 1,4% / variant A: 3,2% for 5,1% / variant B: 3,1% for 4,1%)

1.	Rollout1	5/2 5/4*	eq: +1,911
	Player: Opponent: 80,57% (G:59,70% B:0,54%) 19,43% (G:7,41% B:0,51%) Conf.: ± 0,006 (+1,905...+1,917) - [100,0%] Duration: 4 minutes 04 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/2	eq: +1,877 (-0,034)
	Player: Opponent: 83,88% (G:55,03% B:0,55%) 16,12% (G:3,03% B:0,15%) Conf.: ± 0,005 (+1,872...+1,883) - [0,0%] Duration: 3 minutes 34 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Attack AtS
  Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 20 January 2016, at 9:10 p.m.
  • Attack AtS
    Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 20 January 2016, at 11:14 p.m.
  • Attack AtS
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 21 January 2016, at 4:08 p.m.
  • Attack AtS
    gudgen -- Thursday, 21 January 2016, at 4:59 p.m.
  • Attack AtS
    Chase -- Thursday, 21 January 2016, at 8:16 p.m.
  • Attack AtS
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 21 January 2016, at 9:52 p.m.
  • Attack AtS - RO & variants
    Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 23 January 2016, at 11:47 p.m.
    • Attack AtS - RO & variants
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 24 January 2016, at 6:32 p.m.