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Estimating Cubeless Game Winning Chances
Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Saturday, 30 January 2016, at 12:28 a.m.
In Response To: Estimating Cubeless Game Winning Chances (Chuck Bower)
If there is enough clock time you could get a pretty good estimate by taking 1/36 (chance of blue winning on next shake) + chance white takes at least 3 rolls x chance blue takes exactly 2 rolls).
For the doubling decision you can look forward one sequence and look at regrets from doubling or not doubling.
A very common result is that a 2 roll (or close; white is better after 11 to start but some low rolls makes 11 miss) vs 3s or better position is reached which is a solid market loss. This would be about 91% for white which is a 7% market loss.
Less common results are 66, 55,44,33 right away for white which is a huge 16% market loss unless blue gets 66.
To have have a large regret from doubling blue needs to either get 66 right away or have white miss and then get 65, 55, 44, or 33. This is a little more likely than white getting his good doubles but this regret is not quite as large since white still has some winning chance.
A small regret is possible after white does not get a double and then blue gets 62. Blue is just a small favorite and since we are in a last roll situation with lower ledge of window at 50% the regret is small.
It has to be a double by a decent amount.

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