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OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors RO & variants

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 1:03 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

These are are Q&D (2-ply Play, 3-ply Cube) RO's to get the flavor of the position.

First the original:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 141 5 point match pip: 169 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-a-BBB-BB--c----cAcB-dAA-:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69.858% (G:26.035% B:1.985%)	69.666% (G:27.016% B:4.086%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.142% (G:8.668% B:0.529%)	30.334% (G:9.428% B:0.804%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.6694	+1.6075
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.9918 (-0.0082)	±0.0188 (+0.9731..+1.0106)
Double/Take:	+1.2989 (+0.2989)	±0.0318 (+1.2671..+1.3307)
Double/Pass:	+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 30370292 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:		80.4%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Next -- PF owns their 23-point:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 139 5 point match pip: 169 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--b-BBB-BB--c----cAcB-dAA-:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	68.157% (G:22.785% B:1.587%)	68.153% (G:23.679% B:2.593%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31.843% (G:9.466% B:0.519%)	31.847% (G:9.951% B:0.630%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.5805	+1.4146
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.9062 (-0.0938)	±0.0217 (+0.8845..+0.9280)
Double/Take:	+1.0871 (+0.0871)	±0.0308 (+1.0563..+1.1180)
Double/Pass:	+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 30370292 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 11 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

PF's dillied checkers back on 6- and 8-points:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 149 5 point match pip: 169 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-a-BBB-BB--c----dAdB-bAA-:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.857% (G:23.767% B:1.681%)	66.939% (G:24.164% B:2.911%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.143% (G:8.671% B:0.519%)	33.061% (G:8.827% B:0.908%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.5761	+1.4097
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.8954 (-0.1046)	±0.0213 (+0.8740..+0.9167)
Double/Take:	+1.0645 (+0.0645)	±0.0297 (+1.0348..+1.0942)
Double/Pass:	+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 30370292 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 14 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Owning 10-point, 2 spares on 6- but none on the 8-point:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 143 5 point match pip: 169 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-a-BBB-BB--b--b-bAdB-cAA-:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.893% (G:25.175% B:2.036%)	67.085% (G:26.286% B:3.335%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.107% (G:10.061% B:0.835%)	32.915% (G:10.496% B:1.091%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.5822	+1.4301
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.8815 (-0.1185)	±0.0237 (+0.8577..+0.9052)
Double/Take:	+1.0677 (+0.0677)	±0.0322 (+1.0355..+1.0999)
Double/Pass:	+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 30370292 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Same except one builder on 8- instead of both on 6-point:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 145 5 point match pip: 169 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-a-BBB-BB--b--b-cAcB-cAA-:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65.948% (G:24.018% B:1.916%)	66.226% (G:24.865% B:4.026%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.052% (G:9.636% B:0.568%)	33.774% (G:10.044% B:1.050%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.5543	+1.3601
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.8500 (-0.1413)	±0.0243 (+0.8257..+0.8743)
Double/Take:	+0.9913	±0.0308 (+0.9606..+1.0221)
Double/Pass:	+1.0000 (+0.0087)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 30370292 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		70.9%
Duration: 15 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

PF's own 22-point:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 137 5 point match pip: 169 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bBBB-BB--c----cAcB-dAA-:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.120% (G:19.791% B:1.641%)	67.036% (G:20.555% B:2.442%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.880% (G:9.470% B:0.413%)	32.964% (G:10.177% B:0.660%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.5231	+1.2506
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.8661 (-0.0743)	±0.0237 (+0.8424..+0.8898)
Double/Take:	+0.9404	±0.0305 (+0.9098..+0.9709)
Double/Pass:	+1.0000 (+0.0596)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 30370292 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 30 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Finally, PF undillying and making the 4-point with those checkers:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 143 5 point match pip: 169 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-a-BBB-BB--c----cAcBbbAA-:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	61.205% (G:20.289% B:1.156%)	61.609% (G:20.847% B:1.910%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	38.795% (G:11.642% B:0.750%)	38.391% (G:11.563% B:0.985%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.3794	+0.9759
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.6095	±0.0252 (+0.5843..+0.6347)
Double/Take:	+0.5703 (-0.0392)	±0.0320 (+0.5382..+0.6023)
Double/Pass:	+1.0000 (+0.3905)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 30370292 Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:		97.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 16 minutes 07 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors
  Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 16 February 2016, at 11:52 p.m.
  • OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors
    Steve Mellen -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 12:25 a.m.
  • OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 1:40 a.m.
    • OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors
      Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 8:43 a.m.
      • OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors
        Bob Koca -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 7:30 a.m.
        • OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors
          Bob Koca -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 7:35 a.m.
        • OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors
          Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 8:21 a.m.
          • OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors
            Bob Koca -- Friday, 19 February 2016, at 6:24 a.m.
  • OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors
    mitokid -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 2:45 a.m.
  • OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors
    garyo -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 5:22 a.m.
  • OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors
    Havard Raddum -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 7:48 a.m.
  • OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors
    Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 8:22 a.m.
  • OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors
    Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 9:26 a.m.
  • OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors
    Dan Wittkopp -- Wednesday, 17 February 2016, at 12:01 p.m.
  • OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors RO & variants
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 18 February 2016, at 1:03 p.m.
  • OLM 20160216C The Prime Factors Rollout
    Jason Lee -- Sunday, 21 February 2016, at 5:11 p.m.