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Cubes from Vegas SJ Match  Stick v. Ed  Rollouts  Third position calculation?
Posted By: leobueno
Date: Saturday, 23 April 2016, at 11:57 p.m.
In Response To: Cubes from Vegas SJ Match  Stick v. Ed  Rollouts (Stick)
I am learning about match equity. Here is my analysis of the third position. Don't really know if this is how it is done. So will very much appreciate your pointing out the proper approach.
XG says the player on roll has only a 40% chance of winning the game, yet it is unintuitively correct for him to double even though he is the underdog.
I have a match equity table that goes to 11Away 11Away, so I will estimate MWC for 13A,7A to be 0.20.
> If you double <
A win takes you to 5A,7A; MWC = 0.63.
A loss loses the match; MWC = 0.00.
Expected MWC = (0.63)(0.4) + (0.00)(.60) = 0.25 if double
> If you do not double <
A win takes you to 9A,7A; MWC = 0.39
A loss takes you to 13A,3A; MWC = 0.09
Expected MWC = (0.39)(0.40) + (.09)(0.60) = 0.21 if no double
Since expected MWCdouble > expected MWCno double, then the double is correct.
Gammons would give a little extra to the trailer, so further confirms the decision to double.

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