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Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed - Rollouts | Third position calculation?

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Saturday, 23 April 2016, at 11:57 p.m.

In Response To: Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed - Rollouts (Stick)

I am learning about match equity. Here is my analysis of the third position. Don't really know if this is how it is done. So will very much appreciate your pointing out the proper approach.

XG says the player on roll has only a 40% chance of winning the game, yet it is unintuitively correct for him to double even though he is the underdog.

I have a match equity table that goes to 11-Away 11-Away, so I will estimate MWC for 13-A,7-A to be 0.20.

> If you double <

A win takes you to 5-A,7-A; MWC = 0.63.

A loss loses the match; MWC = 0.00.

Expected MWC = (0.63)(0.4) + (0.00)(.60) = 0.25 if double

> If you do not double <

A win takes you to 9-A,7-A; MWC = 0.39

A loss takes you to 13-A,3-A; MWC = 0.09

Expected MWC = (0.39)(0.40) + (.09)(0.60) = 0.21 if no double

Since expected MWC-double > expected MWC-no double, then the double is correct.

Gammons would give a little extra to the trailer, so further confirms the decision to double.

Messages In This Thread

• Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed
  Stick -- Monday, 18 April 2016, at 5:58 p.m.
  • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 18 April 2016, at 6:23 p.m.
  • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed
    TraumaBG -- Monday, 18 April 2016, at 6:40 p.m.
    • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed
      neilkaz -- Monday, 18 April 2016, at 7:02 p.m.
      • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed
        TraumaBG -- Monday, 18 April 2016, at 7:15 p.m.
        • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed
          neilkaz -- Monday, 18 April 2016, at 7:48 p.m.
          • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed
            TraumaBG -- Monday, 18 April 2016, at 8:12 p.m.
            • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed
              neilkaz -- Monday, 18 April 2016, at 10:19 p.m.
        • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed
          Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 18 April 2016, at 8:01 p.m.
          • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed
            Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 19 April 2016, at 1:59 a.m.
            • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed
              Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 19 April 2016, at 4:46 a.m.
  • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 18 April 2016, at 8:57 p.m.
  • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed
    Sean Garber -- Monday, 18 April 2016, at 9:35 p.m.
    • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 19 April 2016, at 2:12 a.m.
      • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed
        Sean Garber -- Tuesday, 19 April 2016, at 8:01 p.m.
  • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed - Rollouts
    Stick -- Saturday, 23 April 2016, at 10:44 p.m.
    • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed - Rollouts | Third position calculation?
      leobueno -- Saturday, 23 April 2016, at 11:57 p.m.
      • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed - Rollouts | Third position calculation?
        Bob Koca -- Sunday, 24 April 2016, at 1:48 a.m.
    • Cubes from Vegas SJ Match - Stick v. Ed - Rollouts
      Keene -- Monday, 25 April 2016, at 2:03 p.m.