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| ||||
| XGID=-BB-CDB---a------A---bbbhA:1:-1:-1:00:2:4:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 83.061% (G:6.775% B:0.071%) | 83.438% (G:7.396% B:0.016%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 16.939% (G:0.462% B:0.012%) | 16.562% (G:0.262% B:0.006%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.7170 | +1.1944 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.7816 (-0.1751) | ±0.0015 (+0.7801..+0.7830) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.9566 | ±0.0032 (+0.9534..+0.9598) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.0434) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 8 minutes 20 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
The TP in my memory here is 16. I also remember that, in my process of memorizing TPs, when I rounded to whole numbers, that I rounded up to 16 for 5a/3a 2cube. So I know actual TP is between 15.5 and 16
My attempt at counting the number of immediate hits looks like this..
66- 0
55- 11
44- 11+11 = 22
33- 0
22- 4 + 22 = 26
11- 6 + 26 = 32
65- 0
64 11*2 = 22 + 32 = 54
63- 13*2 = 26 + 54 = 80
62- 4*2 = 8 + 80 = 88
61- 0
54- 13 * 2 = 26 + 88 = 114
53- 4 * 2 = 8 + 114 = 122
52- 0
51- 8 * 2 = 16 + 122 = 138
43- 0
42- 8 * 2 = 16 + 138 = 154
41- 7 * 2 = 14 + 154 = 168
32- 7 * 2 = 14 + 168 = 182
31- 6 * 2 = 12 + 182 = 194
21- 3 * 2 = 6 + 194 = 200
200/1296 ~ 2/13 ~ 1/6.5
I know 1/6 ~ .167 and 1/7 ~ .143, so interpolating gives .155
Wow. Super close.
There are cases when white hits but loses anyway, and cases when white will get a second chance to hit.
I'm not even close to being good enough to try and put a number on these variations, so after 3-4 minutes of mental math, I'm still left scratching my head. So I decide, well, if I didnt have time on the clock to do that math, I would have passed.
So I passed.