This post logically belongs in Neil Robins's thread but I'm posting it here for greater visibility.
According to the rollout, after 9/5, Blue loses an undoubled gammon 4783/46656 or about 10% of the time, which is considerably less than the 18% you might naively guess from looking at the standard pseudocubeless statistics, but clearly enough that they cannot be ignored. Blue gets in a double to 2 about 36% of the time.
After anchoring, Blue gets in a double to 2 only about 27% of the time, but loses an undoubled gammon only about 1% of the time.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 3
pip: 116 | | 5 point match | pip: 142
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---BBAC-AA-b-Cb--bbe--b-AA:0:0:1:45:1:3:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 45 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 24/20 | eq: -0.504 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.34% (G:3.03% B:0.11%)
69.66% (G:3.26% B:0.12%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.505...-0.502) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 07 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 9/5 | eq: -0.548 (-0.045) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.13% (G:6.92% B:0.31%)
68.87% (G:18.00% B:1.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.551...-0.546) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 36 minutes |
|
| |
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Bar/20 24/20 Non VR Equity: -0.516 (Cost: +23.76%)
Cube Win BG Win G Win S Cash Pass Lose S Lose G Lose BG D/T D/P Take % D/T D/P Take %
1 3 276 33 5,599 26,296 23 464 21 7,206 5,599 56.27% 6,735 26,296 20.39%
2 41 534 3,792 13 2,481 344 21 6,715 13 99.81%
4 32 1,294 5,211 176 2
Bar/20 9/5 Non VR Equity: -0.550 (Cost: +23.40%)
Cube Win BG Win G Win S Cash Pass Lose S Lose G Lose BG D/T D/P Take % D/T D/P Take %
1 9 447 9 7,892 19,501 8 4,783 343 8,803 7,892 52.73% 4,861 19,501 19.95%
2 88 1,126 3,506 14 2,884 1,115 88 4,843 14 99.71%
4 3 55 868 3,444 443 30