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Gammon Price - Match vs. Money

Posted By: Albert Steg
Date: Monday, 9 January 2017, at 3:53 p.m.

I passed this cube in a match this weekend at the NY Metro. It's right on the borderline at this score, where a win will clinch the match with perfect efficiency for me, while I still have life after a simple loss, and my opponent wins the match with a gammon. I was curious how big a pass it would be for money, thinking it would be a large difference given that there's 3 points of 'overage' when the doubler wins the gammon at the match score, while for money you'd pay "full freight" for the gammon losses. So I'm puzzled why the difference turns out to be so small -- just a tiny pass for money as well, only a .02 difference?

I'm in the habit of thinking that in match play, excess points beyond what my opponent needs to win will tend to lessen the impact of gammons (or large cubes) -- while this position seems to challenge that. Can anyone help me out of my puzzlement?





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 57
9 point match
pip: 133
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBBBBB----a-----AcbdeB-:1:-1:-1:00:5:4:0:9:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.13% (G:28.53% B:2.57%) 63.08% (G:30.78% B:9.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.87% (G:2.00% B:0.08%) 36.92% (G:1.35% B:0.09%)
Cubeless Equities +0.740 +0.996
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.786 (-0.210)±0.006 (+0.780..+0.792)
Redouble/Take:+0.996±0.009 (+0.987..+1.005)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.004)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:80.2%
Duration: 3 minutes 09 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 57
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBBBBB----a-----AcbdeB-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.43% (G:29.74% B:2.50%) 64.42% (G:30.15% B:2.88%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.57% (G:1.87% B:0.07%) 35.58% (G:2.14% B:0.08%)
Cubeless Equities +0.592 +1.193
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.657 (-0.343)±0.004 (+0.653..+0.661)
Redouble/Take:+1.014 (+0.014)±0.010 (+1.004..+1.023)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.8%
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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