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Lopsided score, hit after bearing off against anchor, cube action?

Posted By: Igor
Date: Tuesday, 14 February 2017, at 8:00 p.m.

In Response To: Lopsided score, hit after bearing off against anchor, cube action? (Jason Lee)

If we move three blue checkers from the deuce point to the ace point, then it's a known reference position where white wins about 22–23%. So, white would have a small take in this case, and I guess blue should double. In the actual position, blue is worse off, so white should win at least 25% from here, and I think blue might be a bit short of a double.

In practice, however, who are we playing against? Does our opponent know how often she wins as white here? If not, then it might be right to bluff-double this. Also, all the difficult decisions are on the white side here, so it might be actually right to double against everyone but top level players. White will have sufficiently many chances to make errors during bear off.

Did I just talk myself into doubling this?

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