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31 via text

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 6 March 2017, at 8:31 a.m.

In Response To: 31 via text (Stick)

Would we could we over the board? We could, would, and should.

One of my quick strengths OtB is knowing what I want to roll, what I'm rooting for, before I even roll. Some positions are more obvious than others and in this position we're begging for a number that hops the back checker all the way out. Barring that, we still want to step up if we can. So when I roll the dice the first thing I'm checking for is how my numbers play combined with my back checker.

This isn't that easy but some of the alternatives have already been debunked in this thread. As nice as it always is to have the 5pt, It creates another blot and leaves a double shot. Way too pricey.

As for moving up and playing 6/3 not only do we create another (and two) inner board blots so the slaughter on the other side of the board will come if our opponent doesn't roll an ace (and lots of double hits if he does) but it takes the last spare off our 6pt and leaves a near impossible position to clean up over the course of 1 turn.

The only real candidate is picking up the 9pt which is what I expect a lot of players would do OtB. They can't be blamed as it's a clean looking position but that back checker is in more trouble then you think if you make this play. The duplication of twos in 22, 1 certainly helps.

I did roll this out and the results hold with the best play being a little stronger in comparison to the ++ results. I lost it and am too lazy to reroll.

It is a next in one sense as maybe you're strong enough that this is obvious to you once you've considered all the alternatives but I don't believe anyone would NEXT! this too quickly. The speed of the next (obviousness) matters too on the Rice Next Scale. (RNSİ)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 136 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 130 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Aa-B-CbBBB--B---cbdc--A--:1:1:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.	XG Roller++	23/22 4/1	eq: -0.172
	Player: Opponent: 40.41% (G:9.57% B:0.26%) 59.59% (G:21.76% B:0.64%)
2.	XG Roller++	9/8 9/6	eq: -0.214 (-0.042)
	Player: Opponent: 37.39% (G:8.43% B:0.20%) 62.61% (G:17.78% B:0.53%)
3.	XG Roller++	6/2*	eq: -0.262 (-0.090)
	Player: Opponent: 37.43% (G:9.05% B:0.27%) 62.57% (G:22.85% B:0.98%)
4.	XG Roller++	23/22 6/3	eq: -0.292 (-0.120)
	Player: Opponent: 37.46% (G:8.32% B:0.29%) 62.54% (G:25.24% B:0.89%)
5.	XG Roller++	8/5 6/5	eq: -0.321 (-0.149)
	Player: Opponent: 34.93% (G:9.27% B:0.28%) 65.07% (G:23.07% B:0.97%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• 31 via text
  Stick -- Wednesday, 1 March 2017, at 9:56 a.m.
  • 31 via text
    Igor -- Wednesday, 1 March 2017, at 10:45 p.m.
    • 31 via text
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 2 March 2017, at 1:18 a.m.
      • 31 via text
        Igor -- Thursday, 2 March 2017, at 4:28 p.m.
  • 31 via text
    Mike Clapsadle -- Thursday, 2 March 2017, at 2:54 a.m.
    • 31 via text
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 2 March 2017, at 3:13 a.m.
  • 31 via text
    hominid -- Thursday, 2 March 2017, at 12:42 p.m.
  • 31 via text
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 2 March 2017, at 2:50 p.m.
  • 31 via text
    Stick -- Monday, 6 March 2017, at 8:31 a.m.