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Adjusting AtO

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 27 March 2017, at 11:21 p.m.

In Response To: Adjusting AtO (Stick)

Stick wrote:

My actual PR after I went in and debugged the choices XG doesn't understand was 2.5.

This kind of statement is totally bogus.

For example, if you "incorrectly" double and your opponent passes, this doesn't mean that your double was correct. Your "adjusted PR" should be calculated based on the probability that your opponent would pass. In particular, your double might still be incorrect if your opponent's probability of passing was low and you just got a lucky pass.

I'm sure you also didn't ding yourself (as you should have) for missing doubles where the probability that your opponent would have passed was high enough to make it a double, yet neither you nor XG doubled.

The sizes of your errors, whether checker or cube, also get changed if you adjust the win/gammon percentages to what they really should be AtO, as opposed to what XG thinks they should be.

This is only the tip of the iceberg. Bottom line is that it's impossible to calculate your "actual PR" AtO in any meaningful sense.

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