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Hire Stick for minimum wage!

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 28 March 2017, at 11:44 p.m.

In a recent thread, Stick talked about playing someone for $1,000/match. He estimated that his winning chances were 53% and that a match would take an hour (actually he said 45 minutes to an hour but I'll say 1 hour for simplicity). Then he asked about hourly rate and statistical significance.

The hourly rate is easy: $60/hour. To see this, imagine they play 100 matches. Stick should win $53,000 and lose $47,000 for a net of $6,000, or $60/match. Not bad compared to minimum wage.

The variance is bad but not hopelessly bad. While he's only a slight favorite to win at least 53% of his matches, after 100 matches he will have a 75% chance of breaking even (or better). After 1,000 matches (or about six months of a full-time job), he will have about a 97% chance of breaking even or better, and about a 75% chance of being $40,000 ahead or more.

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