3-ply rollouts are not enough.
The problem with this contest is that the winning position will look something like this one. We need a very high percentage of gammon wins, but the opponent has to have enough wins to take. XG can't handle this family of positions. What setting would we need that we could trust even a teeny little bit with this? 5-ply rollouts? That would take too long on my machine.
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| XGID=-EED----c-ccccA-----------:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:37:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 72.33% (G:63.76% B:0.09%) | 52.82% (G:46.97% B:0.04%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 27.67% (G:2.67% B:0.00%) | 47.18% (G:4.98% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +1.120 | +1.094 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +1.149 | ±0.056 (+1.093..+1.205) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.769 (-0.380) | ±0.098 (+0.671..+0.867) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (-0.149) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 32 minutes 10 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2