| |
BGonline.org Forums
SOLUTION for TG/T at –11–11
Posted By: Sean Garber In Response To: SOLUTION for TG/T at –11–11 (Timothy Chow)
Date: Wednesday, 10 May 2017, at 6:55 p.m.
Win numbers, gammon numbers, and backgammon numbers might be different in a match depending on whether we hold a 2 cube or the opponent holds a 4 cube because there are different priorities at different cube values. When this happens, there is *always* a trade off (we win more gammons in one cube position, we get more wins with the cube in the other position). The rollouts in Nack's 11-away, 11-away position suggest that Blue holding a 2 cube will win 5.4% more games, 5.45% more gammons, and 2.5% more backgammons comparatively. There is no trade off. To me, this is evidence that XG 4-ply is simply playing white's side worse or blue's side better when the cube is on 2. XG 4-ply would do better playing white's side as it does when the cube is on 4 or blue's side as it does with the cube on 2. I did say in a later post "I guess it is at least theoretically possible that white is trying to set up an efficient recube to 8 when holding a 4 cube, not concentrating on getting the best cubeless equity numbers." With further thought, I just don't think that accounts for win, gammon, and backgammon numbers with this big of a difference.
I repeat. If this is a good rollout (which means that if XG 4-ply is doing a good job rolling out the position), then the fact that blue gets better win, gammon, and backgammon numbers with the cube on 2 no trade offs is a paradox to me. To this degree it does not seem possible. If it is, I would like to see an explanation.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.