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Backgame Cube Action - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 8 May 2017, at 8:45 a.m.

In Response To: Backgame Cube Action (Stick)

Given the short match length with a 4 PR difference I believe it's technically better to pass this position. There's not a lot of game left, not a lot of mistakes for the doubler to make. The dice play themselves for the most part.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 164
7 point match
pip: 87
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=---BBCB-A-------baaedB-bBA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 58.71% (G:30.44% B:3.76%) 58.48% (G:30.79% B:3.93%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 41.29% (G:4.40% B:0.18%) 41.52% (G:4.29% B:0.18%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.481 +1.004
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.636±0.013 (+0.623..+0.649)
Double/Take:+0.598 (-0.038)±0.021 (+0.576..+0.619)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.364)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81451111
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:99.9%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 19 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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