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Late bear off races - amazing discovery

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 15 June 2017, at 3:19 p.m.

In Response To: Late bear off races - amazing discovery (Timothy Chow)

",What I've just said is very general and so one might wonder why, following this logic, proper cube provocation plays aren't more common in contact positions."

Do you know how common they are in contact positions? For the set Tom Keith looked at he found 1 out of 18559 bearoff races classified as Wisecarver positions so they are very rare there also.

"When behind, it is often right to put your eggs in the same basket, i.e., making your good rolls better (so that you can win with them) and making your bad rolls worse (since you're going to lose with them anyway). This will tend to increase the variance of your rolls.

Increasing the variance tends to create more market losers for your opponent, who is then forced to double."

The late game positions having larger volatility may be important but the putting all the eggs in one basket certainly seems more possible for contact positions. Instead of just playing for a big double one could make a risky hit or bold slot. My guess is that in real life play that Wisecarver positions occur significantly more often in contact positions compared to non contact positions. Probably more than twice as often.

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