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Midgame cube action - RO & VARIANTS

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Tuesday, 12 September 2017, at 8:20 p.m.

In Response To: Midgame cube action (Karol Szczerek)

I don't have anything smart to say about this position so I'll just post some variants. The original position is a close take. Blue has some holes in his structure and his builders are not that greatly diversified. Note the gammon chances for Blue are quite high due to White's big stack just outside of her home board.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----bCCE-----C-c-c-cb-b--A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68,58% (G:25,36% B:0,29%) 69,03% (G:25,40% B:0,34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31,42% (G:4,93% B:0,19%) 30,97% (G:4,97% B:0,20%)
Cubeless Equities +0,577 +1,172
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,792 (-0,141)±0,008 (+0,784..+0,799)
Double/Take:+0,933±0,012 (+0,922..+0,945)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,067)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 20 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

A small improvement in Blue's offensive structure & race lead done by moving his 8pt. spare to his 5pt. results in a sound pass.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----bCCE-----C-c-b-cc-b--A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70,49% (G:29,58% B:0,30%) 70,93% (G:29,58% B:0,33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29,51% (G:4,79% B:0,20%) 29,07% (G:4,91% B:0,23%)
Cubeless Equities +0,659 +1,332
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,868 (-0,132)±0,007 (+0,861..+0,876)
Double/Take:+1,110 (+0,110)±0,011 (+1,099..+1,121)
Double/Pass:+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 19 minutes 28 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

A slight improvement for White done by moving 2 spares from 7 to 6pt. lets her take again. This is mainly due to reduced gammon danger.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 130
Unlimited Game
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----bCEC-----C-c-b-cc-b--A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69,76% (G:24,84% B:0,29%) 70,02% (G:24,60% B:0,34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30,24% (G:5,13% B:0,22%) 29,98% (G:5,04% B:0,24%)
Cubeless Equities +0,593 +1,194
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,806 (-0,153)±0,007 (+0,799..+0,813)
Double/Take:+0,959±0,010 (+0,949..+0,969)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,041)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 18 minutes 36 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

If we give White another offensive point, namely the 3pt. to equalize the home boards (diagram below) or the 8pt. for better blocking of Blue's back men (diagram below below), it's enough to make Blue not good enough to double.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124
Unlimited Game
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BbCCC-----C-c-b-cc-b--A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64,91% (G:20,07% B:0,22%) 65,16% (G:20,12% B:0,25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35,09% (G:5,71% B:0,22%) 34,84% (G:5,75% B:0,25%)
Cubeless Equities +0,442 +0,894
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,627±0,007 (+0,620..+0,635)
Double/Take:+0,612 (-0,015)±0,012 (+0,600..+0,623)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,373)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3,8%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:98,5%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 18 minutes 35 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----bCCCB----C-c-b-cc-b--A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63,13% (G:24,55% B:0,28%) 63,36% (G:24,72% B:0,29%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36,87% (G:6,40% B:0,29%) 36,64% (G:6,56% B:0,30%)
Cubeless Equities +0,444 +0,897
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,626±0,008 (+0,618..+0,634)
Double/Take:+0,608 (-0,018)±0,011 (+0,597..+0,619)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,374)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4,4%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99,5%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 23 minutes 01 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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