[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Am I too good

Posted By: scotty
Date: Monday, 18 September 2017, at 2:21 a.m.

In Response To: Am I too good (Hank M.)

the position is too good to double.

If blue cubes now, white must drop, and blue gets 2 points, leaving lots of gammons on the table. Blue should double next turn if the dice are bad, i.e. 64 or 44, or wait until it is obvious that white will not lose a gammon.

This is the rule of thumb I use in a closeout situation to assess it. This is not perfect, however it can provide a decent estimate. IF the opponent has 7 checkers borne off, and a checker on the bar against a closed out board, then I have slightly better than 50 GWC. Note that the checker distribution of the opponent will raise my GWC if his remaining checkers are on the high points, or distributed in a way that will create a few misses for him.

IF my opponent has 8 checkers borne off, then my GWC is slightly less than 50%

This principle can be applied like this.....

The opponent has no checkers borne off, and needs 8 crossovers to bring the other checkers home. That is 15 checker away from winning....i.e. gammon

So I would estimate that blue wins about 50% gammons. Does blue want to leave all those gammons on the board?

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.