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Am I too good

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Monday, 18 September 2017, at 1:38 p.m.

In Response To: Am I too good (Hank M.)

If John O'Hagan tells you to cash, you can be pretty confident it is. I was not so sure, so I put it in XG which confirms that John is right.

The question of whether you are too good is not a simple comparison of the number of gammons you win vs. the number of games you might lose by playing on. It's generally much more about what happens on the next roll.

Assuming your opponent has a pass now, how likely is it that he will have a take on the next roll vs. the chances for a gammon. Any roll that gives him a take is called a "market gainer." In addition, are there rolls that do more than just give him a take...sequences that might even give him a win?

In this case, if you roll a crashing number (like 4-4) and he comes in and hits, he not only has a take, he has a good chance of winning and maybe even might gammon you!

So the question of whether or not you are too good is not always simple to answer, but you must start out learning the concepts and principles and then learn how to apply it for different kinds of positions.

For example, in the position below, you hardly ever win a gammon, and you don't win twice as many gammons as the number of games you might lose, but on the next sequence (your roll and his) there is not a single market gainer. There is no way he can take the cube next roll no matter what, and if you play on, there are sequences where the ratio of losses to gammons can tilt greatly in your favor. So you have nothing to lose by rolling.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 65
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 55
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBCBBCC-------------bcccc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 96.69% (G:2.49% B:0.04%) 96.90% (G:2.48% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 3.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 3.10% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.959 +1.926
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.010
Redouble/Take:+1.905 (+0.895)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.010)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 1.1%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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