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more bot info...rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 16 May 2009, at 5:15 p.m.

In Response To: more bot info...rollout (happyjuggler0)

Don't be fooled by the EMG error sizes in such positions, I consider making the ace point a blunder and not only because it gives away over 1/2 a % of match equity. Often in these positions ppl make the second best play and rationalize "well, it's only .015". How big of a reasonable error can you hope to make in such a position? You're either going to win or you're going to win, the difference in plays can't be big.

As Neil touched on, for your opponent to hang around and get a shot he'll often have to begin breaking his board. Then, you'll have to awkwardly, not pointing on him and finding a way to leave a shot. At this point you'll have more men off and your opponent's board likely dented. So, more men off, the most horrible sequence in the world, you get hit, and then you still are probably a favorite to win the game.

However, with play B it's clear to see what happens and seems more plausible that it will happen. Opponent dances, you toss big doubles, opponent hits. He has neither crunched his board nor buried his spares at this point so while you do have more men off you'll be about 50/50 depending on the doubles you left the shot with.

Stick

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