4 variations: rollouts

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4 variations: rollouts

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Saturday, 12 May 2007, at 3:58 a.m.

In Response To: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Containment (Daniel Murphy)

First two are TCTC. Next two (where White is on the 3 point) indicate that recycling the checker is an improvement.
The score (after 0 games) is: White 7, Blue 8
Move number 5: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White 24

Blue 121
Position ID: BwCAAPa2JQgAAA Match ID: UQkAAHAAQAAA

• Blue doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -1.514)!

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity -0.663

Cubeful equities:

1. No double -0.595

2. Double, pass +1.000 +1.595

3. Double, take -2.109 -1.514

Proper cube action: No redouble, take (48.7%)

Rollout details

Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful

Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.206 0.000 0.000 - 0.794 0.064 0.012 -0.663 -0.595

Standard error 0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.005

Player White owns 4-cube 0.199 0.000 0.000 - 0.801 0.085 0.012 -1.398 -2.109

Standard error 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.006 0.011

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1064232702 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0
Move number 5: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White 24

Blue 138
Position ID: BwCAAHbbEgQCAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -1.524)!

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity -0.658

Cubeful equities:

1. No double -0.592

2. Double, pass +1.000 +1.592

3. Double, take -2.117 -1.524

Proper cube action: No redouble, take (48.9%)

Rollout details

Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful

Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.204 0.000 0.000 - 0.796 0.056 0.010 -0.658 -0.592

Standard error 0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.005

Player White owns 4-cube 0.207 0.000 0.000 - 0.793 0.078 0.017 -1.363 -2.117

Standard error 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.005 0.009

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1064208602 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 7, Blue 8
Move number 6: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White 25

Blue 115
Position ID: BwAAAe1tIwgAAA Match ID: UQkAAHAAQAAA

• Blue doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -1.528)!

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity -0.648

Cubeful equities:

1. No double -0.579

2. Double, pass +1.000 +1.579

3. Double, take -2.107 -1.528

Proper cube action: No redouble, take (49.2%)

Rollout details

Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful

Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.206 0.000 0.000 - 0.794 0.052 0.007 -0.648 -0.579

Standard error 0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.005

Player White owns 4-cube 0.195 0.000 0.000 - 0.805 0.079 0.008 -1.395 -2.107

Standard error 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.007 0.010

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1064232702 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0
Move number 6: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White 25

Blue 132
Position ID: BwAAAe22EQQCAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -1.536)!

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity -0.632

Cubeful equities:

1. No double -0.560

2. Double, pass +1.000 +1.560

3. Double, take -2.096 -1.536

Proper cube action: No redouble, take (49.6%)

Rollout details

Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful

Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.210 0.000 0.000 - 0.790 0.044 0.007 -0.632 -0.560

Standard error 0.002 0.000 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.005

Player White owns 4-cube 0.209 0.000 0.000 - 0.791 0.069 0.010 -1.321 -2.096

Standard error 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.006 0.009

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1064208602 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	24

Blue	121
Position ID: `BwCAAPa2JQgAAA` Match ID: `UQkAAHAAQAAA`

White	24

Blue	138
Position ID: `BwCAAHbbEgQCAA` Match ID: `UQkAAAAAAAAA`

White	25

Blue	115
Position ID: `BwAAAe1tIwgAAA` Match ID: `UQkAAHAAQAAA`

White	25

Blue	132
Position ID: `BwAAAe22EQQCAA` Match ID: `UQkAAAAAAAAA`

Messages In This Thread

Containment
Ian Shaw -- Wednesday, 9 May 2007, at 3:21 p.m.
- Re: Containment
  DC-Ohio -- Wednesday, 9 May 2007, at 3:52 p.m.
  - Re: Re: Containment
    Chase -- Wednesday, 9 May 2007, at 6:13 p.m.
- Re: Containment
  Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 9 May 2007, at 4:44 p.m.
  - Re: Re: Containment
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 9 May 2007, at 8:02 p.m.
- Re: Containment
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 9 May 2007, at 6:45 p.m.
  - Re: Re: Containment
    Bryce -- Wednesday, 9 May 2007, at 7:05 p.m.
    - Re: Re: Re: Containment
      Chase -- Wednesday, 9 May 2007, at 7:15 p.m.
      - Re: Re: Re: Re: Containment
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 9 May 2007, at 8:48 p.m.
      - Re: Re: Re: Re: Containment
        Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 9 May 2007, at 9:24 p.m.
      - Re: Re: Re: Re: Containment
        Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 9 May 2007, at 9:36 p.m.
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Containment
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 9 May 2007, at 10:02 p.m.
        
        Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Containment
        Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 9 May 2007, at 10:16 p.m.
        
        4 variations: rollouts
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 12 May 2007, at 3:58 a.m.
- Re: Containment
  Stanley E. Richards -- Wednesday, 9 May 2007, at 8:22 p.m.
- Re: Containment
  neilkaz -- Thursday, 10 May 2007, at 4:35 a.m.
  - Rollout
    DC-Ohio -- Thursday, 10 May 2007, at 1:16 p.m.
    - Re: Rollout
      Stick -- Thursday, 10 May 2007, at 3:15 p.m.
      - Re: Re: Rollout
        Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 10 May 2007, at 9:09 p.m.

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