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Test OLM Mo 12/21/09

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Tuesday, 22 December 2009, at 5:23 a.m.

In Response To: Test OLM Mo 12/21/09 (Jason Lee)

18/13 is forced. 6s & 3s are 28 shots plus the aces that don't hit are (41) for 30 shots. So advancing with 18/17 seems prudent, reducing shots to 5s, 2s, and 1s...which, since the extra 2s are 11 and the extra 5s are 32 and 41 equates to a simple 27-number triple shot.

With 9 misses gin one way vs. gin the other way we would have a borderline take/drop. In favor of taking is that the 27 hits are not gin. In favor of passing is that 1) almost all the misses (64, 44, 33, 66, 63) are good for the race; 2) we can't cash (nor even redouble) after a miss; 3) hitting often leads to a gammon. So pretty clear pass. Definitely not TG because the misses are so bad and after hitting White is still a pretty big dog to get a G.

Against a human maybe one should not play 18/17 in the hopes that they will play on with more shots. So maybe 18/13 5/4 (or even 18/13 2/1) is practically best. But there isn't much to be gained by this and overdoing this kind of play is probably bad in the long run.

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