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41S-21 RO

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 31 December 2009, at 10:33 p.m.

In Response To: 41S-21 RO (David Rockwell)

Thanks for doing a Supremo 5k for 41-21. I'm repeating our combined data below, except I'm updating it for a Snowie extension I have, which worsened $ from -.024 to -.034. (I'll e-mail the file to you: including more plays it is [S U15 $34 D46 V42 W49] 31k 5kDVW.)

Unless otherwise stated, I assume 3-ply for all bots (Gnu is 2-ply but it's the same as 3-ply for the other bots).

Snw [S U15 $34] 31k
XG [S U17 $19] 28k
Gnu [S U17 $11] 46k
Gnu [S U15 $19] 5k (Supremo)

I also checked cubeless equities for $ for all rollouts. XG & Supremo are almost identical. MWC showed $ better by .0027 cubless compared to XG $. (Snowie agrees with MWC GNU.) So, most of the disparity is in the cube, as it usually is. I'm inclined to believe that GNU is overvaluing the slot, but not by much. So, we can conclude that GNU rollouts at DMP and GG probably are correct in recommending $.

Probably so (and good work). In light of Snowie's $ -.034 result for money, and the fact that XG 4-ply seems to have aligned itself with Snowie (rather than Gnu) more often than not so far, it might behoove us to see an XG 4-ply rollout of 41S-21. OTOH, I doubt it's high on Neil's list, because 41S-21S is more clearly right than other plays in other positions. Presumably, we can glean what we need to know about Gnu's slotting bias from other rollouts.

A margin of .010 at (cubeless) DMP would be hard to overcome in any event. (At GS and GG, I tend to adjust half of the money bias, and at DMP only a third of what I think a bot's money rollout bias is.)

I expect that GNU is also overvaluing $ by a similar amount for 51S-21. If true, then U would be better than $ by a small amount. 51S-21.d would probably be U rather than $ based on 51S-21.d [$ U1.0 S22] - 5k. (I'm not sure I understand why U would be preferred after 51S and $ after 41S at DMP. I am more inclined to slot vs four on the eight point.) And, 51S-21.g would remain $.

I think your perplexity is explained by a wandering decimal point. The actual data is 51S-21 d[$ U10 S22] 5k. (You wrote U as "1.0.") The comparable data is 41S-21 d[$ U12 S10] 5k. That is (according to the rollouts), the $/U margin differs by only .002 between positions, which is more in line with your intuition.

Nack

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