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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 7 October 2006, at 8:50 a.m.

In Response To: NIB #41 (Stick)

Tough to blitz your opponent when they only have one blot floating around, you would have a 3 pt. board and they have the golden anchor already. Whenever you hit behind the anchor you should consider if there are any better option. Here, there aren't. 8/3(2) is forced. After that I feel that 9/4(2) is clearly better than 6/1(2) even though 6/1(2) does unstacks the ultra heavy 6 pt. Have 3 of the top 4 pts. will allow you to continue attacking should your opponent enter on the ace or deuce points which is why it's not so serious to leave the six stacked. Also, your opponent is underdeveloped offensively so having the more solid board he'll have to play much safer (and if he ever happens to get a 2nd anchor it will be the weak in conjunction with the 5 pt. ace or deuce point)

Both plays pale in comparison to the best play which is of course POH with 8/3(2), remake the valuable blocking 8 pt. and then the last five is running your back checker.

Money Game
163
155
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 20/15 13/8 8/3*(2) 0.358
0.3% 13.8% 60.4% 39.6% 8.9% 0.4%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.255 0.024. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 8594 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.
2 R 9/4(2) 8/3*(2) 0.302 (-0.055)
0.5% 15.2% 57.7% 42.3% 8.6% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.221 0.022. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 12999 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.
3 R 8/3*(2) 6/1(2) 0.254 (-0.104)
0.3% 16.7% 56.1% 43.9% 10.2% 0.4%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.187 0.024. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 11292 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.

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