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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 7 October 2006, at 8:54 a.m.

In Response To: 31P-32Z-42? (Stick)

I'll admit that 24/18 seems more distasteful to me than the rollout shows. I felt that running out, giving your opponent 6s, 3s, 1s to hit, and then deuces to anchor up was uncalled for. I agree wholeheartedly with making the 4pt. here and I thought it would have come out ahead by more. The top 3 points in your board are too powerful to pass up in my opinion. You leave 15 shots but any contact favors you, since you have a semi-monster board and your opponent as of now has bupkis. By making the 4 pt. you also pressure your opponent to hit or anchor up or suffer the consequences. True, you only have two men in the zone, but you'll be more than happy to hit (or remake the 8 pt.) if the dice come your way.

The other two options here seek to balance your position rather than go for the offensive crush, which is why they are so close.

Money Game
162
163

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 8/4 6/4 0.176
0.9% 18.1% 53.8% 46.2% 12.7% 0.8%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.132 0.007. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 149432 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 24/20 13/11 0.170 (-0.006)
0.8% 15.7% 54.4% 45.6% 12.4% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.124 0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 165175 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
3 R 24/18 0.157 (-0.019)
0.7% 14.2% 54.4% 45.6% 11.9% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.113 0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 167826 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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