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BGonline.org Forums
British Open, one day remaining (OT)
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Good weekend for armchair spectators (OT) (christian munk-christensen)
Date: Saturday, 16 July 2011, at 11:50 p.m.
Regarding your earlier query on the odds of a European winning, it seemed at the time that the European side was a favorite, maybe 3::2 or 2::1. IMO the odds have dropped. World #1 (Donald) and world #2 (Westwood) missed the cut and McIlroy (#3?) is effectively out of it now.
Clarke has to be the favorite. Not only does he lead, but he's clearly the gallery favorite and he's from the Isles where this weather is m/l typical? Of the top 16 (all -5 to +1), 10 are from the US, 5 from Europe and 1 from South Africa. Only Michelson (at 0) has more than one major championship among those 16, and he has a history of poor performance in this tournament. (Of course he doesn't often go into Sunday with a chance.)
Of the top six (Clarke -5, Johnson -4, Bjorn and Fowler -2, Jiminez and Glover -1) half are from Europe and half are from the US. Among the leaders, Fowler had the best round Saturday (including factoring in the conditions under which all played) and besides his 68, only Johnson's 68 and Clarke's 69 broke par. (Anthony Kim at 0 was the only player to shoot 70 on Saturday.)
From what I read, Sunday's weather isn't going to be any better than Saturday's, and may be worse over the entire round. I don't expect anyone to shoot a great round so it's going to be who can give away the fewest strokes. Should be a fun Sunday. I'll be satisfied regardless of who wins, but I'll stick with my three 40+ players (who are all Europeans, so I guess that means I'm taking the old continent vs. the world, too).
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