This actually happened in the next game.
Fabio missed a couple of doubles and then cubed in this position:
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| XGID=-a-CBCB-B-----a-BbcbcbA-a-:0:0:1:00:20:21:0:23:10 | ||||
 on roll, cube action? | ||||
is Paul Weaver| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64,55% (G: 17,93% B: 0,85%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35,45% (G: 9,45% B: 0,87%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64,52% (G: 19,73% B: 1,95%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35,48% (G: 10,13% B: 0,49%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0,378 |
| Double: | +1,004 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0,698 (-0,302) |
| Double/Take: | +1,004 (+0,004) |
| Double/Drop: | +1,000 |
| Best Cube action: Double / Drop | |
| Rollout details | |
| 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60593785 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0,024 (+0,675...+0,722) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0,040 (+0,964...+1,044) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 57,5% |
| Duration: 4 minutes 16 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
This is a TCTC decision, but at this score facing a weaker player I usually tend to take a little more because:
- he will not win as many gammons as XG in this game - if I lose a single, often we will have to play 2 games instead of 1 - the first game will be GG/GS, where he might make mistakes
Compare this to quasi-DMP, where pretty much everybody doubles in the first rolls and only consideration is to win the game, and you come out with a more aggressive taking IMO.
What do you think?