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' MWC error total' versus 'luck adjusted result'

Posted By: Johan Segers
Date: Wednesday, 7 September 2011, at 11:02 a.m.

In Response To: Live variance reduction tournament (Timothy Chow)

I agree that MWC is the proper error measurement scale and that rewarding a player with the difference between the MWC error totals introduces an element of competition, a player's incentive being to outplay his particular opponent, rather than to outplay the bot. Thank you for the suggestion.

I can also well imagine that in the computation of the 'luck factor' in the 'luck adjusted result', more randomness is left than in the computation of the error total.

My objection to the MWC error total is that it relies on the bot's evaluation of the moves actually played. On the other hand, for the computation of the 'luck factor', the bot only compares the MWC before the roll and after the roll according to the moves it itself thinks are best. In this way, any bias is cancelled.

It seems that in the end, the choice between error total and luck adjustment is a matter of taste. What I like about the 'luck adjusted result' is that it directly involves the actual result -- winning the match matters --, discounted for the whims of the dice.

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