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OLM We 09/07/11

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 8 September 2011, at 2:43 a.m.

In Response To: OLM We 09/07/11 (Jason Lee)

Go for the Gammon

Hitting is certain, and for that, switching points is the only way to go. Pick-and-pass is an obvious blunder. With the last 5, we can strip down on the 6pt, or else bear off.

If we clear the spare from the 6pt, a roll of 51 or 61 will force us to leave a blot on the next turn. Bearing off instead risks exposure only when we roll 65, but this is in addition to the risk that 51 and 61 will present later if and when we finally do get down to two checkers on the 6pt. The marginal risk presented by the 65 is roughly (2/36)*(11/36), or 22 games in 1296 (1.7%), where we will be hit.

How many more gammons will we win by bearing off? My guess is that we only need a few to justify bearing off. Consider this: if we do not begin the bear off now, it is possible that we could get caught up clearing the 6pt on our next turn, and not bear off any checkers until the turn after that.

My vote: 5/3*(3), 2/off

Mike





White is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 132
15 point match
pip: 57
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bBCaDCC--------b---bbbbb--:2:-1:1:22:1:7:0:15:10
Blue to play 22

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

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