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An analysis please

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Friday, 2 December 2011, at 11:30 a.m.

In Response To: An analysis please (Snua)

This is DMP, so winning is all that counts. The race is important, after the roll you will be up by 12 pips, so you are winning the race. The problem is that it is not a race yet.

There are three types of play available: (1) stay where you are - then it makes sense to cover the ace point blot and slot the next point, preparing to build a board and hit a shot, (2) run partly (23/17 and the 3 upfront, 7/4 looks like the most efficient play for racing, for racing purposes you like to have checkers on the 4, 5 and 6, 7/4 adds a checker to these points, the other 3s remove a checker), and (3) run all the way.

Approach (1) must be the weakest. White will hit and it you cannot return hit, you are all but lost. And if you hit back, you are still behind a prime with White counterplay. Between approach (2) and (3), I'd count shots. After (3), 23/14, 22 shots, after (2) 23/17 7/4 19 shots. That is enough, 23/17 7/4 it is.

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