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What I (at least meant to have) said

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 9 December 2011, at 3:31 p.m.

In Response To: OT: 4th and 1 from the 1 (Gregg Cattanach)

Far from the goalline, the historical success rate in recent years is 75%. Somewhere I have it plotted as a function of field position but don't have the time to dig it up. Think of "far from the goalline" as > 30 yards out. That should be accurate enough there.

(4th and 1) Inside the opponent's 10 is tougher, particularly from the 99. I don't recall the number exactly but from the 99 it's > 50% and no larger than 55%, historically, for the run. (Pass isn't as good from the 1, but pass is better from outside the 1.)

Note that "historically" has its own conditions/caveats. Do stronger teams go for it more often? Or is it the team who is behind, late in the game, who goes for it more often? Do teams use the optimal setup (i.e. do teams telegraph their intent, for example to QB sneak vs. handing off, to always run when they could mix in the pass, etc.)

A big advantage of going for it is when you fail the opponent is strapped, with apparently (effectively) limited playcalling options. If they fail to pick up the first down the original team gets the ball back with pretty decent field position (typically in opponent's half of the field) with more chances to score.

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