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I still can't bear in correctly against ace-point games

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Sunday, 18 December 2011, at 7:31 p.m.

In Response To: I still can't bear in correctly against ace-point games (Timothy Chow)

The crossover count is 17 vs. 13

The gammonpipcount is 70 vs. 73

Since the gammonpipcount is close, I guess blue will have about 75% gammons after playing 7/3 7/4.

The killing of the 6's after 6/2 6/3 will probably raise the percentage about 10 to 15% to about 85/90%,

The reason for this big raise is that all pips are wasted pips.

So that costs on average 8 pips, and in this "race"-region a pips costs about 1,5%.

and it fills two phantom gaps.

On the risk side it makes playing 65,64,63,62 and 61 harder, a risk of about 8%..

But here with the 5- and 6-point open the risk/gammon ratio is more 1:1 than the usual 2:1.

Since the risk is lower than the extra gammons,

playing 6/2 6/3 is better.

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