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Posted By: Martin Sterel
Date: Thursday, 19 January 2012, at 6:14 a.m.

In Response To: variance of example 3-13. (Martin Sterel)

First . My English is not perfect. It made me add a second question that raised question at it self.

Bad idea.Never again.If anyone ( Daniel) misunderstood sorry. From now on I put a question in my sorry English and I am not going to apologise for it how sorry it might be as it just raises further questions as it did now.

Anyway the example is really part of chapter Connectivity by Robertie. 3-13 page 81. And I really was looking for some input on a variance as Robertie suggests 24/21 24/22 is best in 3-13.Which seemed right.I did not see the theme part explained very well in the book but ok. So like I always do, I change positions to see how much it effects the play like putting 2 checkers from 6 on 5 or 9. On the variance with the 5 point you come up with both.But not on the 9/16.

Suddenly the best play is slotting the 4, comming up with 1 checker and the second best is the play 24/21 24/24 by nearly nothing. *Nack also pointed that out.( ty, by the way). I had a feeling why , but was not sure and why I put it out here in my sorry English.

So I was really curious why*.As they are so close.

Martin





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB---EBA---bC--bccc----B-:0:0:1:23:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 23

1.Rollout124/21 6/4eq: -0,380
Player:
Opponent:		40,15% (G:12,92% B:0,76%)
59,85% (G:18,61% B:1,27%)		Conf.: ± 0,014 (-0,395...-0,366) - [87,7%]
Duration: 21 minutes 59 seconds
2.Rollout124/22 24/21eq: -0,393 (-0,013)
Player:
Opponent:		39,68% (G:12,90% B:0,72%)
60,32% (G:18,78% B:0,92%)		Conf.: ± 0,017 (-0,410...-0,377) - [12,3%]
Duration: 21 minutes 12 seconds
3.Rollout124/21 13/11eq: -0,441 (-0,060)
Player:
Opponent:		38,77% (G:12,78% B:0,71%)
61,23% (G:18,75% B:1,21%)		Conf.: ± 0,015 (-0,456...-0,425) - [0,0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 07 seconds
4.Rollout124/21 8/6eq: -0,464 (-0,084)
Player:
Opponent:		37,96% (G:11,69% B:0,64%)
62,04% (G:17,98% B:0,81%)		Conf.: ± 0,016 (-0,480...-0,449) - [0,0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 50 seconds
5.3-ply24/22 8/5eq: -0,490 (-0,110)
Player:
Opponent:		37,22% (G:11,20% B:0,52%)
62,78% (G:18,78% B:1,15%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 39195725
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

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