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42P-11N-53 *** Rollout ***

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 8 March 2012, at 5:44 a.m.

In Response To: 42P-11N-53 — Obvious to some... (Taper_Mike)

–

42P-11N-53 – [S R32 P110 D178 $212] – "<=10
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--B-D-B---eE---abcb---B-:0:0:1:53:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 53
1.Rollout124/21 13/8eq: -0.1282
Player:
Opponent:		46.61% (G:14.25% B:0.80%)
53.39% (G:15.33% B:0.68%)		Conf.: ±0.0055 (-0.1338...-0.1227) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
2.Rollout124/16eq: -0.1598 (-0.0315)
Player:
Opponent:		46.30% (G:12.62% B:0.62%)
53.70% (G:15.90% B:0.71%)		Conf.: ±0.0057 (-0.1655...-0.1540) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
3.Rollout18/3 6/3eq: -0.2381 (-0.1098)
Player:
Opponent:		43.73% (G:15.10% B:0.89%)
56.27% (G:17.41% B:1.00%)		Conf.: ±0.0062 (-0.2442...-0.2319) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 49 seconds
4.Rollout113/10 13/8eq: -0.3065 (-0.1782)
Player:
Opponent:		42.18% (G:13.99% B:0.82%)
57.82% (G:17.75% B:1.06%)		Conf.: ±0.0060 (-0.3124...-0.3005) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
5.Rollout113/5eq: -0.3398 (-0.2115)
Player:
Opponent:		41.64% (G:13.12% B:0.72%)
58.36% (G:18.05% B:1.19%)		Conf.: ±0.0061 (-0.3459...-0.3337) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 75114143
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

Thanks to Tim, Dmitriy and Nack for their succinct, yet lucid analyses. I learned something with this one. Paul’s variations focus the issue more sharply:

After both player and opponent make an inside point on the opening roll, when is is correct to trade the 8pt for a second inside point on the third?

Against the 11N reply in the original position (above), the decision is easier. With a strong prime forming on the other side, splitting while reinforcing the 8pt dominates the other alternatives.

A Note about Rounding
In order to avoid introducing a bias by systematically rounding values ending 0.5 either up or down, I have adopted the method of rounding toward the nearest even number. Thus, 31.5 is rounded to 32, and 211.5 is rounded to 212. If you have become accustomed to Nack’s habit of always rounding down, then 31.5 should be rounded to 31, and 211.5 to 211.

Mike

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