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OLM Sa 03/10/12

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 3:58 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 03/10/12 (Jason Lee)

I had to resort to looking up the 15-point MET and using pencil and paper on this one to estimate our takepoint. I came up with needing ~36% cubeless wins in order to take.

Suppose White fans: then I guesstimate we will win 50% (cubeless). Suppose White enters: then we're in a marginally timed backgame (he could eventually hit more than one blot, but still we often have trouble getting those checkers out and around before breaking our board). I figured about 30% cubeless GWC in those scenarios. Since he fans 1/4 of the time, prorating says on average we will win 35% cubeless.

So we need 36% cubeless wins but only get 35% (again, my calculations and estimates). Was I pessimistic or optimistic (or neither)? For one thing I assumed 40% of our losses would be gammons. That may be a bit optimistic (i.e. we might lose more g's than that). Also, is 50% too high for our winning chances if opp fans? Not sure, but overall I don't think I was too optimistic.

Pass

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